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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
In one line: A modest contraction in May, but Q2 was still decent.
Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.
Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.
Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly...
...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week.
Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed.
Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.
Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.
The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.
In one line: The recovery continued in Q2.
In one line: Undershooting expectations, but the near-term outlook has improved.
In one line: Resilient, and Q3 will be better as supply constraints ease further.
Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere.
Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers.
The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
In one line: A decent performance in May, despite undershooting expectations.
High and sticky inflation in the Andes is increasing the pressure on policymakers to act beyond Q3.
The steady fall in currencies, due mainly to the hawkish Fed, is making things even more complicated.
The strategy will be to act boldly now and bring the economy to a standstill, to allow rapid easing in H1.
In one line: The slowdown continues on a sequential basis.
In one line: Economic activity was resilient in Q2, but the outlook has darkened.
Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.
The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.
Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.
The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly.
Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative.
Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further.
Colombia — Petro becomes the first leftist president
Mexico — AMLO’s party seems unstoppable
Chile — A tax reform proposal will be presented
Colombia’s new president will find an economy in good shape, with output well above pre-Covid levels.
The good news, however, won’t last; high inflation and tighter financial conditions are now key threats.
The new leader will have to tackle poverty, popular discontent, and long-standing structural issues.
The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.
The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.
We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.
Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.
The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.
The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.
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