Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

March

21 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Recovery is Petering Out in Colombia as Inflation Bites

  • Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
  • Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
  • The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Activity is Solid in Brazil, Inflation is Galloping in Argentina

  • Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
  • ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
  • Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor August's CPI Data in Brazil Are Good Enough to Prevent More Rate Hikes

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
  • ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
  • Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Underlying Inflation Pressures Force More Rate Hikes in LatAm

Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...

...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.

Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2022 Manufacturing Remains a Key Support for GDP Growth in Mexico

Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.

Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.

AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 July 2022 Brazil's Presidential Election is Up for Grabs, Despite Lula Leading

The latest polls confirm that former President Lula will win in Brazil, but anything can still happen.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s strategy—mostly boosting aid to households—is giving him modest support.

We expect the near-term momentum to continue to favour the opposition, but the economy will decide.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 July 2022 LatAm CBs Likely will Continue to Hike in Q3, but Urgency will Ease

Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain. 

The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data. 

Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 June 2022 Peru's BCRP to Hike Further in Q3, Colombia's Election is Too Call

Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.

The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.

Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 June 2022 Inflation Continues to be a Pain to Policymakers, but It is Peaking

Inflation slows at the margin in BraMex, but underlying pressures remain high and upside risks abound.

Chile’s inflation continues to head north, driven by a resilient domestic demand and external shocks.

The BCCh will continue to hike rates in Q3, but at a slower pace; inflation will start to edge down soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 June 2022 Brazil's Solid Recovery Continues, Despite Diverse Shocks

Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support... 

...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging. 

Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 May 2022 Mexico's Recent Economic Strength Likely will Falter Soon

The Mexican economy performed strongly in Q1, but activity remains well below pre-crisis levels.

The outlook for the rest of 2022 is challenging, pushing inflation gradually down from Q3 onwards.

Banxico strengthened its hawkish tone at its last policy Minutes, but it will have to ease it soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 May 2022 Colombia's Solid Recovery Continued in Q1, but the Pace is Unsustainable

Colombia’s solid recovery continued in Q1, thanks mainly to robust private consumption...

...But momentum is already fading on a sequential basis, due to deteriorating domestic fundamentals.

High inflation, tighter monetary policy, and deteriorating external conditions will be key drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 May 2022 Mexico's Industrial Upturn Continued in Q1, but the Outlook has Darkened

Mexico’s total industrial output contributed to GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook is overcast.

High inflation, deteriorating global supply conditions, and increased domestic uncertainty, remain drags.

Argentina’s inflation nightmare continues, despite the government’s efforts to put a lid on the uptrend.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, March, 2022

  • In one line: A solid Q1, but growth momentum likely will start to ease soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 May Inflation in Mexico and Colombia Continues to Rise Rapidly, for Now

April inflation in Mexico undershot expectations, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

The data brought modest comfort to policymakers, but the tightening cycle will continue this week.

In Colombia, April inflation surprised to the upside; BanRep will keep hiking, as it is far behind the curve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 May 2022 The BCCh Hiked Rates Boldly as Inflation Accelerated Sharply in April

The BCCh delivers a bigger-than-expected rate hike, and leaves the door open for further tightening.

Inflation rose in April faster than policymakers expected, keeping up the pressure for more rate hikes.

The CLP sell-off, high commodity prices, and the lagged effect of policy stimulus remain a nightmare.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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