March 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…

• …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

February 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

MONETARY POLICY NORMALISATION CONTINUES...

• ...DESPITE A BAD START TO Q1 FOR INFLATION, DUE TO EL NIÑO

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: GDP, Colombia, Q4, 2023

• In one line:  A poor end to the year, but the details are less grim than the headline.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, January, 2023

• In one line: Disinflation fully on track.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, December, 2023

• In one line: A terrible end to the year, but conditions will likely improve in Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

January 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

INFLATION CONTINUES TO FALL AND GROWTH IS SLUGGISH...

• ...ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, December, 2023

• In one line: A poor end to the quarter, highlighting the need of further rate cuts.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, November

• In one line: Undershooting expectations, by some way.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, November, 2023

• In one line: Struggling, despite relatively positive sectoral data in November.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, November, 2023

• In one line: A good report, boosted by Black Friday sales.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, December, 2023

• In one line: Disinflation will continue.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, January, 2023

• In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, November, 2023

• In one line: Struggling; Banxico will take note.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, December, 2023

• In one line: Disinflation is on track.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

December 2023 - Latin America Chartbook

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FALTERING AND INFLATION FALLING...

• ...BUT CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN CAUTIOUS, FOR NOW

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Mexico, October, 2023

• In one line: A soft start to the quarter, despite the strong-looking headline.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, October, 2023

• In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, December, 2023

• In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as expected.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Chile, November, 2023

• In one line: A sharp m/m increase, but the rapid downtrend will resume soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, November, 2023

• In one line: Core inflation continues to fall.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America