Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

June

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is Yet to Peak, but in Peru the Downtrend has Started

  • Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
  • Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
  • Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor China's Economic Slowdown will Hurt LatAm Commodity Exports

  • China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
  • Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
  • The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Economic Recovery is Stalling, and Banxico is Watching

The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor June's Retail Sales Figures in Mexico are Raising Red Flags

June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.

Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.

Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Underlying Inflation Pressures Force More Rate Hikes in LatAm

Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...

...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.

Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 July 2022 Latin America Monitor A Disinflation Trend Emerges in Brazil, Thanks to Recent Measures

 A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...

...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.

The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2022 Latin America Monitor High Inflation is Denting the Upturn in Mexico and Argentina

The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.

Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...

...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Economy Shows Signs of Fatigue

Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.

Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.

Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2022 Peru's Economic Activity Rebounded in May, but it Likely will Stall Soon

Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...

...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.

Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2022 Colombia's Near-Term Outlook Has Worsened, the COP Feels the Pain

Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.

Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.

A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 July 2022 LatAm CBs Likely will Continue to Hike in Q3, but Urgency will Ease

Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain. 

The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data. 

Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, June, 2022

  • In one line: Undershooting expectations, but the picture remains terrible.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, June, 2022

  • In one line: In line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 July 2022 Inflation Remains a Headache for Banxico, but it Will Peak Soon

Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.

Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.

Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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