9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

• Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
• The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
• The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is Yet to Peak, but in Peru the Downtrend has Started

• Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
• Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
• Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor China's Economic Slowdown will Hurt LatAm Commodity Exports

• China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
• Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
• The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Economic Recovery is Stalling, and Banxico is Watching

The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America