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Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.
That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.
Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.
Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.
Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.
Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.
Chile — Political risk improves further
Peru — Castillo finally declared president-elect
Colombia — Duque presents a social-driven fiscal bill
We are expecting a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Mexican industrial output in Q2, slightly below our previous forecast, 0.8%, in the wake of May’s report.
In a relatively light week in terms of economic indicators in Brazil, the inflation numbers garnered all the attention.
Data released on Friday confirmed that the Colombian economy was more resilient than expected in the face of the third Covid wave, which triggered localised restrictions and curfews.
Banxico voted unanimously to keep the main rate on hold at 4.0% for a second straight meeting.
Friday’s first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was resilient at the start of the year.
In one line: Resilient on a sequential basis, but downside risks remain.
General elections are slated for 2022, so political volatility will remain “relatively low” over the next few quarters.
Recent data for February and early March signal that LatAm economies appear to have started the year better-than-expected, despite the worsening pandemic.
Colombia's economy started the year on a weak note, with the ISE index, a monthly proxy to GDP, falling 4.6% year-over-year, down from -2.5% in December and +3.6% in Q4.
Colombia's economy started the year on a weak footing, due to the renewed lockdown measures, but the hit has been less severe this time, and leading indicators suggest that the recovery will gather speed in Q2.
The prospect of a bold start to the tightening cycle this week in Brazil strengthened significantly yesterday,
The January retail sales report in Brazil, released on Friday, confirmed the slowdown of private consumption on the back of the end of fiscal aid to households. Sales volumes fell 0.2% month-to-month in January, below the consensus, -0.1%.
In one line: Headlines hurt by unfavourable base effects; the recovery continues.
In one line: A bad start to the year, due to Covid and the end of the fiscal aid.
Brazil's industrial sector was off to a good start in Q1, but momentum is clearly fading, due to the end
of emergency aid to households and the worsening of the pandemic.
Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 in February, from a seven-month low of 56.5 in January, when activity was hit by the worst of the second Covid wave.
Data released in recent days have confirmed thatChile's economic recovery continued at the start of the year, despite the worsening of the pandemic and the fading boost from temporary factors.
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