- In one line: A poor end to 2022, but the economy likely will dodge a recession.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A soft end to the year and H1 looks difficult.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Brazil’s real GDP has risen for a fifth consecutive quarter; output is about 5% above pre-Covid level...
...But the balance of risks for 2023 is to the downside, due mainly to increased fiscal threats.
Policy uncertainty could keep interest rates high for even longer, and the global economy won’t help.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent Q3, despite an array of drags on growth.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, but growth momentum is still easing sequentially.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The economy is shrinking, and the near-term outlook remains negative.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector was under pressure in August, but the near-term outlook is positive.
- Improving domestic fundamentals likely will offset the drag from deteriorating external conditions.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Colombia, with the headline rate still climbing rapidly.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
- ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
- Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
- Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
- The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
- Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
- Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
- Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
- The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
- The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
- Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
