Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a full list of our Latin America Publications.

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28 Sept 2020 COPOM's Minutes and the Inflation Report Point to Rates on Hold

Recent economic data in Brazil, along with recent messages from the BCB, have supported our view that interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Sep 2020 20:20Latin America

13 May 2020 Ugly Data in Mexico Continue to Set the Stage for Further Rate Cuts

More depressing economic numbers in LatAm have been released in recent days, and high frequency data continue to show a near-term bleak outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)12th May 2020 20:10Latin America

28 Apr 2020 Brazil's BRL in the Eye of the Storm, Due to Rising Political Risk and Covid

After falling close to 5% last week, the Ibovespa rallied about 3.5% yesterday. Investors reacted positively to President Bolsonaro's expression of support for his Economy...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Apr 2020 20:10Latin America

30 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Sovereign Credit Rating Downgrades are Here

The massive hit from low oil prices, Covid-19 and President AMLO's willingness to call snap referendums on projects already under construction is putting pressure on...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)29th Mar 2020 20:20Latin America

25 Mar 2020 The Covid Hit is Starting to Show in the Hard Data for Mexico and Brazil

LatAm governments and central banks have been busy implementing additional measures to contain the spread of the virus, and acting rapidly to ease the effect on the economy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Mar 2020 20:20Latin America

20 Mar 2020 Monetary and Fiscal Policy Measures to Fight the Economic Armageddon

Economic and financial conditions continue to deteriorate sharply in LatAm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)19th Mar 2020 20:10Latin America

17 Mar 2020 A Savage Toll on LatAm's Economy, Prospects Have Turned Bleak

Latin American markets and policymakers are bracing for another complicated week, after the second, and more aggressive, Fed emergency move over the weekend.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)16th Mar 2020 20:10Latin America

9 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Hit Likely will Allow LatAm Banks to Cut Rates Soon

The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Mar 2020 20:20Latin America

6 Mar 2020 Brazil's Economic Recovery to Continue, if Covid-19 Allows it

Data released on Wednesday, along with the BCB's press release on Tuesday, supported our longstanding forecast of further rate cuts in Brazil in the very near term.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)5th Mar 2020 19:10Latin America

3 Mar 2020 A Bad Q1 for LatAm, DM Stimulus will be Only a Temporary Boost

It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)2nd Mar 2020 19:10Latin America

18 Dec 2019 Banxico to Cut Rates Even Further, but the COPOM is Almost Done

Banxico will meet tomorrow, and we expect Mexican policymakers to cut the main interest rate by 25bp, to 7.25%.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)17th Dec 2019 19:10Latin America

9 Dec 2019 Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate, but Threats Loom

Data released on Friday showed that November inflation was in line with, or below, expectations in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Dec 2019 19:20Latin America

11 Oct 2019 Inflation Surprises to the Downside in September: Rate Cuts Loom

Recent inflation numbers across the biggest economies in LatAm have surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)10th Oct 2019 20:10Latin America

24 Sept 2019 Mexico's Business Cycle Calls for Banxico to Keep Cutting Rates

This week's key data releases in Mexico likely will reaffirm that growth remains below trend, while inflation continues to ease.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)23rd Sep 2019 20:10Latin America

26 July 2019 Mexico's Economy is Under Strain, But Falling Inflation is its Last Hope

We remain negative about the medium-term growth prospects of the Mexican economy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)25th Jul 2019 20:10Latin America

23 July 2019 A Stable MXN will Allow Banxico to Cut Interest Rates, Despite Politics

The MXN remains the best performer in LatAm year-to-date, despite some ugly periods of high volatility driven by external and domestic threats.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)22nd Jul 2019 20:10Latin America

15 July 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued Banxico to Cut Soon

Downbeat sectoral data and weakening consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy remains in bad shape.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)14th Jul 2019 20:20Latin America

10 July 2019 Mexican Inflation Falls Back into the Target Range. Rate Cuts in Sight

Inflation pressures are gradually easing in Mexico, opening the door for rate cuts as early as next month. The June CPI report, released yesterday, showed that prices rose 0.1%...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)9th Jul 2019 20:10Latin America

28 June 2019 Banxico Dials Down its Hawkish Rhetoric, it Will Have to Ease Soon

Mexican policymakers voted to leave the main rate on hold at 8.25% yesterday, as inflation remains high--though falling--and the economy is stuttering.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Jun 2019 20:10Latin America

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