Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

February

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but it will Hike Soon, as Inflation Bites

Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.

Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.

Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 July 2021 Inflation Pressures are Easing in Argentina, but the Outlook is Grim

Argentina's inflation pressures continue to ease on a sequential basis, improving the ruling party's chances of performing well in the mid-term elections, slated for November.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2021 Rising Commodity Prices are Helping LatAm's Economic Upturn

Continued improving global growth and its impact on the goods sector are particularly beneficial in LatAm, where the rapid recovery of commodity prices poses added upside risks as the economies gradually reopen.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2021 Supply Issues are Hurting Mexico's Manufacturing Sector

We are expecting a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Mexican industrial output in Q2, slightly below our previous forecast, 0.8%, in the wake of May’s report.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 July 2021 Argentina's Recovery is Stalling, and the Second Half Looks Tough

Argentina's April economic activity report unsurprisingly showed that activity remained greatly depressed by lockdown rules—restrictions have been tightened significantly since late May—despite improving external conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2021 Improving External Account Picture thanks to Better Global Growth

External accounts in LatAm likely will continue to improve over the next few months, thanks to the global economic recovery. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 June 2021 Banxico Hikes Interest Rates, Trying to Lower Inflation Expectations

Mexican policymakers have voted by a majority to increase the main rate by 25bp to 4.25%, to counter underlying inflation pressures, as the recovery is gathering speed and external conditions are turning more challenging for EM.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2021 Peru's Recovery Stalled in April; Argentina's Inflation Nightmare

Economic and political uncertainty continues in Peru. It took about two weeks to count all the presidential votes, but Pedro Castillo, who led by only 0.25pp over Keiko Fujimori, hasn't been declared the winner yet.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 June 2021 Andean Economies Struggled in Early Q2 Amid Domestic Headwinds

Andean economies have been struggling recently, owing to the worsening of the pandemic, rising political risk, and social unrest.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 May 2021 The Mexican Economy is Getting Better, Despite Rising Political Risks

Data released in recent days have confirmed that the Mexican retail sector is gradually on the mend, despite many headwinds, including the pandemic, and rising political uncertainty.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 May 2021 Retail Sales in Brazil Fell in Q1, But Conditions will Improve Soon

Data released on Friday added to the view that theBrazilian economy was under strain in late Q1, due to the worsening of the pandemic.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 Apr 2021 Mexico's Recovery Hit a Wall in February, but it will Improve Soon

Yesterday, Mexico's INEGI reported a 0.3% month-to- month contraction in its February GDP proxy, the IGAE index, prompting us to mark down our Q1 GDP growth projection to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.2%.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Mexico, February, 2021

In one line: A setback, but probably not the start of a downtrend. 

Peter BennettLatin America

26 Apr 2021 Mexican Retailers Enjoyed a Solid Start to the Year, Despite Covid

Mexico's retail sales report for February was another indication that domestic demand has improved in recent months, following a bumpy Q4, helped by the reopening of the economy, and improving fundamentals. Retail sales rose a strong 1.6% month-to-month, pushing the adjusted year-over-year-year rate up to -3.8% in February, up from -7.1% in January.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Apr 2021 Brazil's Economy Remains Resilient, but Still Faces Downside Risks

Data released yesterday in Brazil showed a surprisingly strong economy in February, despite the worsening of the pandemic and many domestic headwinds.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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