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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.
That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.
Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.
Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.
Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.
Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.
Argentina's inflation pressures continue to ease on a sequential basis, improving the ruling party's chances of performing well in the mid-term elections, slated for November.
Continued improving global growth and its impact on the goods sector are particularly beneficial in LatAm, where the rapid recovery of commodity prices poses added upside risks as the economies gradually reopen.
We are expecting a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Mexican industrial output in Q2, slightly below our previous forecast, 0.8%, in the wake of May’s report.
Argentina's April economic activity report unsurprisingly showed that activity remained greatly depressed by lockdown rules—restrictions have been tightened significantly since late May—despite improving external conditions.
External accounts in LatAm likely will continue to improve over the next few months, thanks to the global economic recovery.
Mexican policymakers have voted by a majority to increase the main rate by 25bp to 4.25%, to counter underlying inflation pressures, as the recovery is gathering speed and external conditions are turning more challenging for EM.
Economic and political uncertainty continues in Peru. It took about two weeks to count all the presidential votes, but Pedro Castillo, who led by only 0.25pp over Keiko Fujimori, hasn't been declared the winner yet.
Andean economies have been struggling recently, owing to the worsening of the pandemic, rising political risk, and social unrest.
Data released in recent days have confirmed that the Mexican retail sector is gradually on the mend, despite many headwinds, including the pandemic, and rising political uncertainty.
In one line: On the mend, and prospects are gradually improving.
Data released on Friday added to the view that theBrazilian economy was under strain in late Q1, due to the worsening of the pandemic.
In one line: The gradual recovery of the labour market continues.
Recent economic news in Brazil has been relatively positive.
Yesterday, Mexico's INEGI reported a 0.3% month-to- month contraction in its February GDP proxy, the IGAE index, prompting us to mark down our Q1 GDP growth projection to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.2%.
In one line: A setback, but probably not the start of a downtrend.
Mexico's retail sales report for February was another indication that domestic demand has improved in recent months, following a bumpy Q4, helped by the reopening of the economy, and improving fundamentals. Retail sales rose a strong 1.6% month-to-month, pushing the adjusted year-over-year-year rate up to -3.8% in February, up from -7.1% in January.
In one line: Improving, following the easing of Covid restrictions.
Data released yesterday in Brazil showed a surprisingly strong economy in February, despite the worsening of the pandemic and many domestic headwinds.
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