- In one line: A poor November headline, and growth will soften further.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
- Mexico — A solid start to the year
- Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly resilient on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Mexico’s economic activity was resilient in Q3, but this is in stark contrast to survey data.
Manufacturing and services activity are showing early signs of fatigue; 2023 will be difficult.
The current account slid to 1.6% of GDP, but FDI saved the day; we expect a gradual correction in H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s recovery continued in H2, but risks are tilted to the downside, due chiefly to high interest rates.
- Peru’s central bank increased interest rates last week, and left the door open to further tightening...
- ...But it will move to the sidelines soon, as inflation is finally falling, and economic activity stutters.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, but risks are tilted to the downside.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly strong, but a downtrend will emerge soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Brazil continued to fall rapidly in early Q4, but the COPOM won’t have it easy anytime soon.
- Mexico’s economic activity rebounded sharply in August, but this is in stark contrast to sectoral data.
- Growth momentum will slow soon, as fundamentals have deteriorated consistently in recent months.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Economic activity in Colombia and Peru remained relatively resilient in August, despite an array of drags.
- The outlook is challenging, though, as the squeeze on real disposable income drains growth momentum.
- The hit of higher borrowing costs for households and corporates on their spending will also hurt.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Ugly, but we expect a resilient economy in Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to Q3, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
- Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
- Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
- Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
- Chile — Political questions not abating
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
- Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
- Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
- Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
- The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
