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Mexico's core inflation is at cyclical highs and rising; the reopening of the economy is mostly responsible.
Inflation will stay well above Banxico's target range over H2, forcing policymakers to hike interest rates.
Fixed investment and private consumption continued to recover in Q2, the near-term outlook is positive.
Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.
The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.
Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.
Data slated for today likely will confirm that Brazil's economic recovery consolidated in the first quarter and the near-term outlook remains benign. Real GDP likely rose about 2.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, following a 3.2% surge in Q4.
Recent economic news in Brazil has been relatively positive.
Mexico's retail sales report for February was another indication that domestic demand has improved in recent months, following a bumpy Q4, helped by the reopening of the economy, and improving fundamentals. Retail sales rose a strong 1.6% month-to-month, pushing the adjusted year-over-year-year rate up to -3.8% in February, up from -7.1% in January.
Mexico's recent economic data releases confirm that conditions for a recovery in domestic demand are gradually materializing.
Colombia's economy started the year on a weak note, with the ISE index, a monthly proxy to GDP, falling 4.6% year-over-year, down from -2.5% in December and +3.6% in Q4.
Colombia's economy started the year on a weak footing, due to the renewed lockdown measures, but the hit has been less severe this time, and leading indicators suggest that the recovery will gather speed in Q2.
Brazil's industrial sector was off to a good start in Q1, but momentum is clearly fading, due to the end
of emergency aid to households and the worsening of the pandemic.
Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 in February, from a seven-month low of 56.5 in January, when activity was hit by the worst of the second Covid wave.
Data released in recent days have confirmed thatChile's economic recovery continued at the start of the year, despite the worsening of the pandemic and the fading boost from temporary factors.
In one line: Modest inflation pressures amid subpar retail activity.
Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment downtrend hasn't reached the bottom yet, given the sharp deterioration
of the pandemic in recent months.
Data released in recent days confirm that the economic recovery continued in most of LatAm in late Q4, thanks to rising spending on the back of less- strict social distancing measures ahead of the holiday season.
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