Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

COP

21 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Politics Remains Centre Stage in a Complicated External Backdrop

The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.

The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.

Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Embattled Banxico and BanRep Face Pain from External Conditions

  • Mexican policymakers hiked rates in tandem with the Fed; more will be needed to restore prices stability.
  • A divided BanRep increased the main rate less than expected; a gamble that will keep markets uneasy...
  • ...The COP is under stress as investors worry about BanRep’s commitment to fighting inflation. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Services Sector Continues to Fire on all Cylinders

  • Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
  • Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
  • Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2022 Colombia's Near-Term Outlook Has Worsened, the COP Feels the Pain

Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.

Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.

A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2022 Manufacturing Remains a Key Support for GDP Growth in Mexico

Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.

Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.

AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 July 2022 Currencies Hit by Global Recession Fears

Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail

Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro

Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2022 Left-wing Candidate Petro Wins in Colombia; What Next?

Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.

A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.

Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 June 2022 Colombia's New President will Face an Economic Downturn Soon

Colombia’s new president will find an economy in good shape, with output well above pre-Covid levels. 

The good news, however, won’t last; high inflation and tighter financial conditions are now key threats. 

The new leader will have to tackle poverty, popular discontent, and long-standing structural issues. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2022 High Political Risk Limits the FX Rebound

Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage

Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook

Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 June 2022 Colombia's Inflation Remains a Headache, Despite Easing in May

Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.

Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 May 2022 LatAm will Rein-in Stubbornly High Inflation in the Second Half

Food has been a key contributor to the inflation rebound in Q2, but pressures likely will ease in H2.

Core prices also will drive inflation down, as economies lose momentum.

Further monetary tightening and unconventional measures will add to the squeeze on inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 May 2022 Colombia's Solid Recovery Continued in Q1, but the Pace is Unsustainable

Colombia’s solid recovery continued in Q1, thanks mainly to robust private consumption...

...But momentum is already fading on a sequential basis, due to deteriorating domestic fundamentals.

High inflation, tighter monetary policy, and deteriorating external conditions will be key drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 May Inflation in Mexico and Colombia Continues to Rise Rapidly, for Now

April inflation in Mexico undershot expectations, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

The data brought modest comfort to policymakers, but the tightening cycle will continue this week.

In Colombia, April inflation surprised to the upside; BanRep will keep hiking, as it is far behind the curve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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