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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.
The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.
Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.
Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail
Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro
Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears
Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.
A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.
Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.
Colombia’s new president will find an economy in good shape, with output well above pre-Covid levels.
The good news, however, won’t last; high inflation and tighter financial conditions are now key threats.
The new leader will have to tackle poverty, popular discontent, and long-standing structural issues.
Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage
Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook
Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won
Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.
Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.
Food has been a key contributor to the inflation rebound in Q2, but pressures likely will ease in H2.
Core prices also will drive inflation down, as economies lose momentum.
Further monetary tightening and unconventional measures will add to the squeeze on inflation.
Colombia’s solid recovery continued in Q1, thanks mainly to robust private consumption...
...But momentum is already fading on a sequential basis, due to deteriorating domestic fundamentals.
High inflation, tighter monetary policy, and deteriorating external conditions will be key drags.
April inflation in Mexico undershot expectations, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.
The data brought modest comfort to policymakers, but the tightening cycle will continue this week.
In Colombia, April inflation surprised to the upside; BanRep will keep hiking, as it is far behind the curve.
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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence