Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

6 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance with Andean currencies appreciating despite political noise

  • Brazilian Real —  Slips modestly on global headwinds
  • Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
  • Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution

5 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial sector struggles as BCB prepares for gradual shift

  • Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
  • The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
  • We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.

4 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep holds rates as inflation risks persist; Chile's recovery continues

  • High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
  • The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
  • Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.

PM Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q3, 2025

  • In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.

3 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BCCh holds rates as political noise grows; Mexico's GDP falls in Q3

  • BCCh’s cautious pause reflects sticky core inflation, fragile job data and sensitivity to election-driven noise.
  • …Disinflation, a stable CLP and lower energy tariffs will justify a 25bp cut in December.
  • Mexico’s GDP shrank in Q3 as industry weakened further and services plateaued; Q4 will be better.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Mexico, August, 2025

  • In one line: Uneven performance, but risks remain tilted to the downside.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, August, 2025

  • In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, September, 2025

  • In one line: Disinflation holds, but core pressures persist.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, August, 2025

  • In one line: Signs of modest recovery in August, but the outlook remains fragile.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, August, 2025

  • In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.

September 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS POLICY STAYS RESTRICTIVE…

  • …DISINFLATION ADVANCES, BUT CORE PRESSURES CLOUD OUTLOOK

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, August, 2025

  • In one line: Retail and manufacturing support growth, labour market improving at the margin.
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Keywords for: Latin America

Latin America Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,