Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Disinflation continues; more good news to come.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thursday’s triple threat of policy meetings in Brazil, Chile and Colombia is the main event this week.
- Will the rapid disinflation in Brazil allow the COPOM to accelerate the pace of easing this week?
- Similarly, in the Andes, policymakers will increase the magnitude of rate cuts, also thanks to rapid disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Economic activity in Mexico is struggling, particularly manufacturing and key services, as demand eases.
- The ongoing weakness of global conditions and high real interest rates will constrain growth during H1.
- Bad weather has foiled a promising disinflation story, though core pressures continue to ease rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Poor economic activity and soft core inflation pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The IBC-BR for November shows Brazil’s economy is stagnating, despite rapidly falling inflation.
- Tight financial conditions will continue to keep a lid on activity, offsetting the boost from fiscal support.
- Business surveys are improving, signalling better momentum in Q2, if the COPOM acts boldly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy performed relatively well in November, and the outlook is improving; just.
- S&P lowered the country’s outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ due to the sluggish economic growth.
- A rating downgrade will likely be avoided, but President Petro’s policy missteps are a real threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, by some way.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling, despite relatively positive sectoral data in November.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Brazil grew strongly in November, thanks mainly to the Black Friday boost.
- Lower inflation and a resilient labour market are also offsetting the drag from rising real interest rates.
- Economic activity was resilient in Q4, but downside forces will prevent a rapid upturn any time soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good report, boosted by Black Friday sales.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Presidential election hotting up
- Argentina — Pragmatic chainsaw switched on
- Chile — Pension reform continues to advance in Congress
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Milei has been busy in his first month in charge of Argentina’s economy, but it hasn’t been easy.
- Inflation turned out a bit better than expected, at a still-ugly 211%, the highest since 1990.
- The IMF backed Milei’s economic plan, approving the next disbursement under the current deal.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation continues in Peru, as temporary shocks fade and domestic demand remains sluggish.
- We look for the BCRP to reduce rates to about 5% by the end of H1 2024...
- ...But risks to the inflation outlook have increased at the margin in recent days, particularly geopolitics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation pressures in Brazil remained under control at the end of 2023, as domestic demand eased.
- Favourable inertia effects and the BRL’s performance in recent quarters will push inflation down in H1.
- Further good news on the inflation story in Colombia; the COP’s rebound last year will be a drag in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — At an all-time high, and 2024 looks solid
- Mexico — Improving, but elections could bring noise
- Chile — Rally to continue after political risk eases
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America