Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor
- Chile’s economy had a poor end to 2023, due to still-high interest rates and uneven consumer demand…
- …But the big picture is of an economy gradually gathering speed, and the outlook is upbeat.
- The recovery will likely continue this year, accompanied by healthy external accounts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s inflation data for February highlights challenges, with emerging optimism for the future.
- President Milei’s reforms are driving confidence amid economic stabilisation efforts.
- The government will need to hone its approach to avoid stifling the economy and causing social unrest.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Facing mixed influences, but outlook upbeat
- Colombia — Positive trend, but politics a threat
- Chile — Solid domestic and external conditions
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Another 50bp rate cut is warranted in Brazil next week, with underlying inflation in check.
- We still see the possibility of a bigger cut in Q2, but challenging external conditions are posing a threat.
- Mexico’s industrial sector faces challenges despite the good start to Q1; future prospects are bright.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- US job market data stabilises yields, boosting LatAm currencies and easing pressure on policymakers.
- Colombia’s disinflation pace eased in February but will soon gather speed, as domestic demand is struggling.
- The COP’s stability will also help, assuming President Petro continues to face challenges in Congress.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The swift decline in inflation in Mexico paves the way for a potential interest rate reduction this month.
- Services inflation remains sticky, but softening economic activity indicates an upcoming downtrend.
- Brazil’s industry had a bad start to 2024, but leading indicators point to brighter conditions on the horizon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Stability amid uncertainty
- Chilean Peso — Unattractive carry trade is hurting
- Peruvian New Sol — Leading the EM pack amid challenges
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The Mexican presidential election campaign officially kicks off after nine months of preparations.
- The incumbent party’s candidate continues to lead the polls, as the economy is still faring relatively well.
- Sheinbaum’s “next phase of transformation” focuses on infrastructure, social aid and renewables.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy began the year strongly, yet it is premature to claim success.
- Further rate cuts are needed due to the weakening job market and the continued strain on capex.
- Peru’s favourable disinflation story faced a setback in February, but this will not hinder future rate cuts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
MONETARY POLICY NORMALISATION CONTINUES...
- ...DESPITE A BAD START TO Q1 FOR INFLATION, DUE TO EL NIÑO
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation continues in Mexico, and the near-term outlook remains benign according to survey data.
- The Q4 GDP report confirms activity was under pressure, due to a range of domestic and external drags.
- Tighter financial conditions are the main issue, but the numbers allow Banxico to start cutting in March.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Protests against AMLO, but…
- Colombia — Superpowers for President Petro?
- Peru — Cabinet changes to present a new image
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Data to be released in coming days will likely confirm that the Mexican economy struggled in Q4.
- If core disinflation continues as we expect, Banxico will start to cut rates next month.
- Argentina’s economy is under pressure, but some good news is emerging, particularly on fiscal issues.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- December’s IBC-Br confirmed that activity in Brazil ended Q4 strongly, but with some caveats.
- Still-elevated real rates are holding back the upturn in private consumption; COPOM will have to cut more.
- Peru had a poor end to the year, but low inflation and looser monetary conditions will support growth in H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Sluggish start to the year as headwinds bite
- Mexico — Inflation, Banxico and the Fed
- Colombia — Reduced political risk is a boost, for now
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Industrial production growth in Mexico slowed sharply towards the end of last year.
- Some leading indicators point to still-difficult times ahead; external conditions will remain a drag in H1.
- The miserable inflation story continues in Argentina but is finally showing signs of improvement, just.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation in Colombia is paving the way for bigger rate cuts from a still-cautious BanRep.
- The effect of El Niño and the large minimum wage increase will be offset by sluggish domestic demand.
- Consumer confidence is on the mend, thanks to the COP’s resilience, lower inflation and interest rates.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by the usual 25bp to 6.25%, as inflation continues to fall rapidly.
- The Bank has ample room for manoeuvre, but bolder action is limited for now by the PEN sell-off.
- Sluggish economic growth and challenging external conditions are testing the country’s fiscal resilience.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The El Niño effect is pushing prices of key foods higher, but core pressures remain under control.
- Brazil’s disinflation is on track, despite the headline number surprising to the upside in January.
- Food prices are also causing trouble in Chile, and methodology changes have led to elevated noise.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
- Colombian Peso — Shielded by high carry
- Chilean Peso — Lower carry still the key drag
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
