Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Colombia’s economy dodged a technical recession in Q3, but growth prospects remain gloomy.
- Elevated political uncertainty and stiflingly high interest rates continue to drag down investment.
- Conditions likely will improve in Q1, as BanRep starts to ease rates, but Petro’s policy will remain a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Opinion polls are pointing to a knife-edge result in this Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina.
- Uncertainty is high, but the near-term outlook is clear: expect an FX sell-off, high inflation and recession.
- The next president will have a difficult job getting the economy back on track.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal uncertainty back in the spotlight
- Argentina — Anything can happen on Sunday
- Colombia — Resounding defeat for President Petro
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation is still firmly falling, despite the temporary rebound in Q3.
- A weakening service sector and sliding consumer morale suggest stronger rate cuts are needed.
- Mexico’s manufacturing is finally showing signs of life, but it is too soon to expect a protracted upturn.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP stuck to the script and cut rates by 25bp last week, but we do not rule out stronger moves.
- Colombia’s inflation figures for October support the case for the easing cycle to start next month.
- Sluggish demand, easing indexation, less political risk and the COP’s stability will bring inflation down.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico kept interest rates on hold, as widely expected, but started to lay the ground for rate cuts.
- Falling inflation and a dovish Fed have the potential to open the door to rate cuts as early as next month.
- Inflation continues to fall, and we are confident that underlying pressures will remain subdued.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation, at the headline level, remains fully on track.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s retail sector ended Q3 on a solid footing, but growth momentum will continue to slow.
- Chile’s disinflation continues, leaving the door open to further rate cuts as the economy struggles.
- The major threat in the very near term is politics, but calm will emerge after the storm.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Global uncertainty to remain the key driver
- Argentina — Fluctuating on the political news
- Colombia — Subdued despite better politics
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid finish to Q3, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep will likely cut rates very soon, as inflation continues to fall consistently.
- Increased borrowing costs are dampening domestic demand growth, despite BanRep’s liquidity boost.
- The labour market is already showing signs of fatigue, contrary to some hawkish Board members’ views.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy did well in Q3, but growth continues to ease on a sequential basis.
- Increased infrastructure spending and nearshoring are offsetting the hit from tighter financial conditions...
- ...But the upside boost will gradually fade, and a weakening global economy will also be a drag.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM cut the Selic rate by 50bp, and will keep this pace, as global risks are now a threat.
- A faster easing cycle is needed as the economy struggles and inflation remains in check.
- COPOM will be more dovish in Q1, potentially allowing bigger cuts, assuming the fiscal situation is benign.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
