Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- Retail sales in Mexico performed poorly in Q1, due mainly to tighter financial conditions.
- The bad news won’t last; the sector will be supported by falling inflation and lower rates.
- The outlook, however, will likely be tempered by remittance trends and external risks.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
- Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
- The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s jobless rate continues to fall, and leading indicators point to a good performance in Q2.
- This improvement will leave the COPOM uneasy, but we believe conditions will stabilise in the near future.
- In his first 100 days in office, Milei tackled the daunting task of addressing Argentina’s problems.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The improving inflationary outlook has allowed Banxico to start an easing cycle, by 25bp to 11.00%.
- The forward guidance continues to indicate the potential for further cuts, depending on the data.
- The room for policy easing at the next meetings remains wide open, as inflation will continue to fall.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The significant reduction in LatAm’s current account deficit last year appears promising…
- …But it was primarily due to weaker domestic demand; exports showed only modest resilience.
- The deficit is likely to widen again as the economy recovers, but better global demand will offset the hit.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets by keeping rates on hold but reducing reserve requirements.
- Chile’s inflation surged in February, due to the CLP sell-off, posing challenges for the BCCh.
- Risks and uncertainty loom as the CLP faces depreciation pressures due to the unattractive carry.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic recovery stalled in H2, after an impressive performance in previous quarters.
- Falling private consumption, due to tight financing conditions, has put the economy under strain.
- Bold rate cuts are still needed, assuming an improvement in external conditions and a better fiscal outlook.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy managed to muddle through in Q4, thanks to the revival in consumption and capex.
- Leading indicators point to a better H1, though the recovery will remain subpar by previous standards.
- Tight financial conditions and still-elevated political/ policy uncertainty will limit the rebound.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- At last Banxico has opened the door to interest rate cuts, as early as next month.
- Headline inflation has surprised to the upside recently, but due to the volatile non-core component.
- Core disinflation is on track and economic activity is slowing rapidly; Banxico is already behind the curve.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- BanRep delivered a cautious rate cut, as inflation risks remain tilted to the upside…
- …But there was unanimity among the Board on the need for further policy normalisation.
- We still think bolder rate cuts are coming, as inflation will start to fall rapidly and activity will falter.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Thursday’s triple threat of policy meetings in Brazil, Chile and Colombia is the main event this week.
- Will the rapid disinflation in Brazil allow the COPOM to accelerate the pace of easing this week?
- Similarly, in the Andes, policymakers will increase the magnitude of rate cuts, also thanks to rapid disinflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- LatAm economic activity is under pressure, helping to bring inflation back under control.
- Still-tight financial conditions are hurting key sectors, but the economic outlook will improve soon.
- Rate cuts will help to revive activity, but increased political and geopolitical uncertainty is a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- LatAm central banks pushed back on aggressive rate-cut expectations, despite the Fed’s policy shift.
- Banxico doubled down on its cautious approach, but we still think that rate cuts will come soon.
- Peru’s BCRP also embraced prudence, but bolder action will be possible in Q1, El Niño permitting.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s November inflation numbers support the case for bolder rate cuts during Q1, fiscal issues permitting.
- Headline inflation is declining faster than expected in Colombia, but the core remains sticky, for now.
- The headline inflation fall is good enough to trigger action by BanRep next week.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation overshot expectations in Chile; food prices and tourist packages did the most damage.
- Underlying pressures remain under control, and the sluggish economic recovery will put a lid on inflation.
- BCCh will cut by 75bp next week, as price pressures are subdued, despite the ugly inflation headlines.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s sub-par economic recovery continued in October, with the non-mining sector a key driver.
- The near-term outlook is benign, but indicators point to difficult times for capex further out.
- Peru’s disinflation gathered speed in November, opening the door to bolder rate cuts this month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy did well in Q3 due chiefly to stronger services, but the good news won’t last.
- Growth momentum is easing; higher borrowing costs are triggering a slowdown in consumption.
- Interest rate cuts are coming, as the minutes of the last meeting suggest, but in Q4?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
