- The BCRP held rates steady; economic activity is gathering speed but disinflation is fully on track.
- The Board has left the door open to further cuts, but external risks and inflation remain key factors.
- Argentina’s inflation is slowing as Mr. Milei’s economic policies yield results, despite lingering issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: An ugly finish to 2024, and Q1 2025 will be difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under severe strain, and risks are tilted to the downside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A larger cut; improving inflation outlook allows for bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to the year, supporting further policy normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation spikes in January, driven by electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico signals further rate cuts amid disinflation, economic slowdown and easing external pressures.
- The better inflation outlook, however, faces threats from US policy risk and domestic policy noise.
- The Board will likely cut rates to 8% this year, if President Trump doesn’t get in the way.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The first quarterly contraction in more than a year, and the outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, and expect further good news in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as uncertainty has increased substantially.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid end to the year, explaining the cautious tone of the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economic fragility is exposed as US trade policy pushes activity to the verge of recession.
- Banxico will have to balance slowing growth, potential US tariffs and the MXN’s performance.
- Chile’s landmark pension reform strengthens social security and dismantles systemic uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
EXTERNAL RISKS ARE FORCING A CAUTIOUS APPROACH…
- …THE PETRO-TRUMP SAGA HIGHLIGHTS THE GROWING THREAT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Another bold rate hike and a continued hawkish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
