Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm economic activity is under pressure, helping to bring inflation back under control.
- Still-tight financial conditions are hurting key sectors, but the economic outlook will improve soon.
- Rate cuts will help to revive activity, but increased political and geopolitical uncertainty is a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FALTERING AND INFLATION FALLING...
- ...BUT CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN CAUTIOUS, FOR NOW
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm central banks pushed back on aggressive rate-cut expectations, despite the Fed’s policy shift.
- Banxico doubled down on its cautious approach, but we still think that rate cuts will come soon.
- Peru’s BCRP also embraced prudence, but bolder action will be possible in Q1, El Niño permitting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s November inflation numbers support the case for bolder rate cuts during Q1, fiscal issues permitting.
- Headline inflation is declining faster than expected in Colombia, but the core remains sticky, for now.
- The headline inflation fall is good enough to trigger action by BanRep next week.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation overshot expectations in Chile; food prices and tourist packages did the most damage.
- Underlying pressures remain under control, and the sluggish economic recovery will put a lid on inflation.
- BCCh will cut by 75bp next week, as price pressures are subdued, despite the ugly inflation headlines.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s sub-par economic recovery continued in October, with the non-mining sector a key driver.
- The near-term outlook is benign, but indicators point to difficult times for capex further out.
- Peru’s disinflation gathered speed in November, opening the door to bolder rate cuts this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
MONETARY EASING CONTINUES, AS INFLATION FALLS...
- ...THIS WILL PREVENT A PROTRACTED ECONOMIC DOWNTREND
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy did well in Q3 due chiefly to stronger services, but the good news won’t last.
- Growth momentum is easing; higher borrowing costs are triggering a slowdown in consumption.
- Interest rate cuts are coming, as the minutes of the last meeting suggest, but in Q4?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy dodged a technical recession in Q3, but growth prospects remain gloomy.
- Elevated political uncertainty and stiflingly high interest rates continue to drag down investment.
- Conditions likely will improve in Q1, as BanRep starts to ease rates, but Petro’s policy will remain a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
