Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Banxico’s unanimous decision to keep rates on hold at 11% is due to persistent inflationary pressures.
- Upward revisions to headline and core inflation forecasts signal a more hawkish bias than expected.
- The Board is signaling the door is open for further interest rate cuts, as disinflation remains on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM CENTRAL BANKS ADOPT A MORE HAWKISH POSITION
- A CAUTIOUS FED AND STICKY SERVICES INFLATION ARE HURTING
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s disinflation remains on track, paving the way for another bold interest rate cut next month…
- …But a cautious COPOM is signaling a slower pace of easing amid the BRL sell-off, due to external risk.
- Argentina’s Milei delivers the largest fiscal surplus in three decades; his ‘shock therapy’ is paying off.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Mexico performed poorly in Q1, due mainly to tighter financial conditions.
- The bad news won’t last; the sector will be supported by falling inflation and lower rates.
- The outlook, however, will likely be tempered by remittance trends and external risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
- Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
- The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s jobless rate continues to fall, and leading indicators point to a good performance in Q2.
- This improvement will leave the COPOM uneasy, but we believe conditions will stabilise in the near future.
- In his first 100 days in office, Milei tackled the daunting task of addressing Argentina’s problems.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…
- …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The improving inflationary outlook has allowed Banxico to start an easing cycle, by 25bp to 11.00%.
- The forward guidance continues to indicate the potential for further cuts, depending on the data.
- The room for policy easing at the next meetings remains wide open, as inflation will continue to fall.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The significant reduction in LatAm’s current account deficit last year appears promising…
- …But it was primarily due to weaker domestic demand; exports showed only modest resilience.
- The deficit is likely to widen again as the economy recovers, but better global demand will offset the hit.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets by keeping rates on hold but reducing reserve requirements.
- Chile’s inflation surged in February, due to the CLP sell-off, posing challenges for the BCCh.
- Risks and uncertainty loom as the CLP faces depreciation pressures due to the unattractive carry.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic recovery stalled in H2, after an impressive performance in previous quarters.
- Falling private consumption, due to tight financing conditions, has put the economy under strain.
- Bold rate cuts are still needed, assuming an improvement in external conditions and a better fiscal outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
MONETARY POLICY NORMALISATION CONTINUES...
- ...DESPITE A BAD START TO Q1 FOR INFLATION, DUE TO EL NIÑO
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy managed to muddle through in Q4, thanks to the revival in consumption and capex.
- Leading indicators point to a better H1, though the recovery will remain subpar by previous standards.
- Tight financial conditions and still-elevated political/ policy uncertainty will limit the rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- At last Banxico has opened the door to interest rate cuts, as early as next month.
- Headline inflation has surprised to the upside recently, but due to the volatile non-core component.
- Core disinflation is on track and economic activity is slowing rapidly; Banxico is already behind the curve.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep delivered a cautious rate cut, as inflation risks remain tilted to the upside…
- …But there was unanimity among the Board on the need for further policy normalisation.
- We still think bolder rate cuts are coming, as inflation will start to fall rapidly and activity will falter.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
INFLATION CONTINUES TO FALL AND GROWTH IS SLUGGISH...
- ...ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thursday’s triple threat of policy meetings in Brazil, Chile and Colombia is the main event this week.
- Will the rapid disinflation in Brazil allow the COPOM to accelerate the pace of easing this week?
- Similarly, in the Andes, policymakers will increase the magnitude of rate cuts, also thanks to rapid disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America