Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor
- In one line: The oil shock is now feeding through more forcefully into headline inflation.
- Brazil’s inflation story is shifting; external shocks are driving a renewed increase in prices.
- The key challenge now is to stop a temporary shock becoming persistent; the COPOM will be cautious.
- Exports are surging in Mexico on non-manufacturing strength, but weak capex limits broader gains.
- Activity is weakening in Argentina, with domestic sectors lagging behind primary sectors.
- Growth is becoming less labour-intensive; external sectors are solid while domestic demand is subdued.
- The export-led recovery looks sustainable, but weak consumption and capex mean uneven growth in Q2.
- In one line: Labour market holds up, but activity is weakening.
- In one line: Disinflation is slow, and demand is beginning to weaken.
- Inflation continues to ease in Mexico, but core pressures are sticky and non-core volatility persists.
- Retail sales are weakening, with tighter financial conditions and remittances weighing on households.
- Banxico will ease cautiously as slower growth supports cuts but persistent inflation limits the pace.
- Consumption is driving activity in Colombia, but it is concentrated in durable goods and sensitive to rates.
- Industry and primary sectors remain weak, highlighting structural issues and fragile growth dynamics.
- Tighter financial conditions will weigh on demand, with the slowdown led by key consumption segments.
- Core inflation in Argentina remains elevated, as indexation and second-round effects still bite.
- Temporary shocks are fading slowly as fuel, tariffs and food prices are feeding broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy credibility holds, but a high inflation floor implies a slower and less even disinflation path this year.
- In one line: Activity remains firm, but momentum is clearly slowing.
- In one line: A modest rebound, but underlying demand remains weak.
- Brazil — Election tightens as fiscal loosening intensifies
- Argentina — Reform agenda faces judicial limits
- Colombia — Run-off maths dominate
- Colombia’s fiscal anchor has gone, as deficits, rising debt and weak revenues undermine credibility.
- Inflation pressures are persistent and broader, forcing BanRep to tighten despite growth already softening.
- COP resilience looks fragile, with markets likely to drive a correction via interest rates and FX.
- The shock from Camisea disruption and higher oil prices drives broad-based inflation pressures in Peru.
- The core inflation spike signals wider cost pressures, raising risks of persistence and second-round effects.
- The BCRP is likely to stay on hold, but risks are now tilted towards tightening sooner than expected.
- Lower oil prices bring temporary inflation relief, but core pressures remain persistent in Mexico.
- Banxico has limited room to ease while inflation is elevated and expectations remain vulnerable.
- Markets are underestimating geopolitical risk; the inflation outlook and easing path are even more fragile.
- Brazil — Ceasefire triggers relief rally
- Chile — Upside support driven by oil-price reversal
- Peru — External drivers back in control
- Growth in Chile is losing speed, but the central bank has no room to respond any time soon.
- High oil prices are worsening the inflation outlook, limiting the scope for easing.
- Weak activity, high unemployment, fragile confidence and tight policy are delaying the recovery.
- In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.
- Mexican peso — Policy shift weakens the carry story
- Colombian peso — Carry and oil drive outperformance
- Chilean peso — Oil shock dominates the outlook
- Brazil’s job market is cooling from tight levels, limiting faster disinflation and prospects for rate cuts.
- Mexico’s labour market is tight at the headline level, but job quality is deteriorating, with rising informality…
- …Strong wage growth supports consumption but reinforces inflation pressures and structural issues.
- Fiscal discipline anchors stability in Argentina, but household weakness is constraining the recovery.
- Inflation remains sticky, limiting policy easing and complicating the economic upturn.
- The energy sector is supporting growth, but financial vulnerabilities are high.
