Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- BanRep raised rates last week, as inflation remains persistent and expectations are still de-anchored.
- Institutional tensions between the government and central bank risk undermining BanRep’s credibility.
- Fiscal fragility and external shocks also reinforce the need for a prolonged restrictive stance going forward.
- Mexican peso — Policy shift weakens the carry story
- Colombian peso — Carry and oil drive outperformance
- Chilean peso — Oil shock dominates the outlook
- Brazil’s job market is cooling from tight levels, limiting faster disinflation and prospects for rate cuts.
- Mexico’s labour market is tight at the headline level, but job quality is deteriorating, with rising informality…
- …Strong wage growth supports consumption but reinforces inflation pressures and structural issues.
- Fiscal discipline anchors stability in Argentina, but household weakness is constraining the recovery.
- Inflation remains sticky, limiting policy easing and complicating the economic upturn.
- The energy sector is supporting growth, but financial vulnerabilities are high.
- Banxico’s policy surprise reflects weaker activity, with the inflation spike considered temporary.
- External shocks from oil and tighter financial conditions raise upside risks and constrain easing.
- Disinflation is becoming more uneven; Banxico must balance supporting growth against inflation risk.
- The oil-driven inflation shock is delaying easing in Chile, and even raising the probability of tightening.
- The growth outlook has weakened as tighter financial conditions and fiscal restraint bite.
- Policy is on hold for now, but risks have tilted clearly to the hawkish side in Chile and the region as a whole.
- Food and energy shocks have driven inflation higher in Mexico, but core pressures are contained.
- Economic activity weakened sharply at the start of the year, signalling a broader loss of momentum.
- Banxico will hold rates, as inflation risks are persisting and growth slowing, reinforcing its cautious stance.
- Consumption remains resilient in Mexico, but softening fundamentals signal momentum will slow ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and higher energy prices limit room for Banxico to resume its easing cycle soon…
- …It will likely prioritise its credibility, delaying cuts as external risks and inflation pressures intensify.
- Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
- Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
- Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.
- Brazil’s rate cut marks the start of the easing cycle, but the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.
- External shocks and oil prices will curb disinflation, reinforcing the need for gradual policy adjustment.
- The COPOM is keeping its options open, but high uncertainty limits scope for faster rate cuts ahead.
- Brazil — Election race tightens as fiscal risks mount
- Mexico — Fiscal push meets market volatility
- Colombia — Fragmentation sharpens electoral maths
- Peru’s inflation is rising on supply shocks; anchored expectations allow BCRP to maintain a cautious tone.
- Activity remains resilient and near potential, though energy disruption and external risks cloud the outlook.
- Policy will likely stay on hold, as uncertainty limits the scope for action, at least over the next six months.
- Economic activity in Brazil began the year on a solid footing, but the upturn is still uneven.
- Higher oil prices improve the external balance but risk reigniting inflation pressures.
- The COPOM faces a delicate balance between stabilising growth and preserving inflation credibility.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- Brazil’s February inflation confirms the disinflation trend, but the oil-price surge carries upside risk.
- Higher oil prices could delay the COPOM’s easing cycle, keeping financial conditions tight.
- Retail sales started the year strongly, but low confidence signals fragile consumption.
- Brazil — Weathering volatility; outlook still positive
- Mexico — Absorbing oil shock but holding record highs
- Chile — Supportive domestic backdrop still intact
- Headline inflation in Colombia eased in February, but core and services prices continue to rise.
- The minimum-wage shock and indexation threaten to halt disinflation and keep expectations high this year.
- A fragmented Congress and competitive presidential race raise political risk premia across markets.
- Higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk reversing recent disinflation progress across LatAm.
- Banxico likely will pause easing as core inflation remains sticky and external risks intensify.
- Chile’s inflation has cooled below target, but rising oil prices and a weaker CLP now threaten the outlook.
- Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
- Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
- Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.
- Higher oil prices divide exporters and importers, as markets weigh the duration of Middle East tensions.
- The oil shock and a weak Imacec highlight Chile’s fragile growth, as manufacturing struggles…
- …Rate cuts, copper strength and fiscal consolidation shape the outlook, though geopolitics is the key risk.
