Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Deep BanRep Board divisions and sticky inflation expectations are delaying further rate cuts.
- Rising fiscal deficits and political noise are under- mining policy credibility and investor confidence.
- Stronger growth gives limited relief as inflation risks and external pressures continue to build.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The benign inflation report supports a 50bp cut, but a divided Banxico will likely slow the easing pace in H2.
- Services inflation is sticky; housing, wage and food costs are delaying disinflation despite a MXN rebound.
- Private demand and capex lead growth in Argentina, but external imbalances and fiscal risks remain high.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A rebound in manufacturing and services lifted Mexico’s output in April, but momentum is weak.
- Consumption faces pressure from high rates, labour-market stress, and fading support from remittances.
- Colombia’s proposed ballot sidesteps legal processes, raising institutional fears.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
- Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
- Colombia — Violence, reform and fiscal crisis
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Sticky core inflation and electricity-price risks will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite progress on disinflation.
- Gradual CLP appreciation and subdued domestic demand will allow further rate cuts in Q3.
- Colombia’s MTFF signals rising risks amid political urgency; fiscal relief today, higher debt tomorrow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Sticky services and volatile food prices cloud Banxico’s outlook, despite weaker domestic demand.
- Disinflation will resume soon, allowing Banxico to proceed with gradual rate cuts.
- Brazil’s economic growth is slowing in Q2, as agriculture normalises and tight financial conditions bite.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
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- Capex and consumption have weakened in Mexico as high rates and trade tensions dampen confidence.
- Construction and machinery output have slumped, with tight policy and little appetite for long-term capex.
- Banxico’s rate cuts and the USMCA revision will bring limited relief given the persistent structural challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Stable, but risks loom ahead
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief
- Colombian Peso — Top-performing LatAm FX in May
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industry weakened in April, hit by falling domestic demand and a difficult external backdrop.
- Sectoral data show a broad-based decline, under- scoring structural strains and fading external support.
- Mexico’s first judicial election saw a low turnout, political interference and risks to independence.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mining and services offset weak industrial output in Chile, providing a solid base for Q2 growth.
- Business sentiment improved slightly but remains fragile, with construction still the weakest link.
- Peru’s inflation is well under control, led by cheaper food and fuel prices; the BCRP is likely to cut soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- No formal steps towards constitutional change have been taken, yet, despite Mr. Petro’s fiery rhetoric.
- Low protest turnout and legislative hurdles suggest Mr. Petro’s political project is losing momentum fast.
- Peru’s economy started 2025 strongly, supported by primary sectors and resilient domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
- Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
- Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Political and fiscal risks escalating
- Mexico — Stability tested by violence and reform
- Colombia — Mr. Petro’s reform agenda faces headwinds
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, led by services and government spending, despite a drag from mining.
- Its external accounts improved in Q1 at the headline level, despite portfolio outflows and income deficits.
- The investment outlook is brighter, given less political risk, but structural issues and uncertainty loom large.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic activity surged in Q1, driven by agriculture and resilience in industry and services…
- …Momentum is likely to wane as tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty take hold.
- Colombia’s real GDP rose strongly in Q1, thanks to domestic demand, but structural risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico delivered another unanimous 50bp cut, to 8.50%, and pointed to more easing ahead.
- Brazil’s resilient consumption masks mounting pressures from inflation and weak services…
- …Tighter financial conditions are also a drag, but retail and labour data offer cautious optimism.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Receding risk and foreign inflows
- Mexico — Rebounding, but volatility set to continue
- Chile — Boosted by tariff truce and domestic tailwinds
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm will see muted benefit from the tariff rollback, as global demand and prices remain under pressure.
- The temporary truce reduces uncertainty but does not reverse regional capex and confidence headwinds.
- Chile’s disinflation is gaining traction, offering room for further monetary policy normalisation in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
