Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist) Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
LATAM SHIELDS ITSELF AMID TARIFF TURMOIL…
- …BUT VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS REMAIN ELEVATED
- Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
- US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
- Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
- In one line: Consumption resilient amid headwinds, but confidence wavers as external risks build.
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
- Colombia’s suspension from the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line marks a turning point in its economic trajectory.
- The move is technically temporary, but it reflects deep fiscal vulnerabilities.
- BanRep is likely to hold rates as the FCL suspension raises policy constraints and market pressures.
- February’s IGAE rebound brought short-term relief but failed to alter Mexico’s waning growth trajectory.
- External trade tensions and domestic political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on capex.
- Government growth forecasts are disconnected from prevailing conditions, with recession risk high.
- Inflation pressures in Brazil deepened in April, driven by food and healthcare, with risks tilted upwards.
- The BCB will hike on May 7 as it battles sticky services inflation; will it move to the sidelines thereafter?
- Fiscal fragility and currency volatility complicate the policy mix, threatening inflation and market stability.
- In one line: Retail momentum softens in February after January’s rebound.
- Mexico’s surprise inflation rebound in early April reflects temporary shocks…
- …Primarily the lagged effect of MXN depreciation, rather than a fundamental shift in the inflation trend.
- Retail sales point to a broader slowdown in domestic demand, despite a better-than-expected Q1.
- Brazil — Uncertainty and fiscal risks resurfacing
- Mexico — Reforms and trade noise persist
- Colombia — Reform gamble deepens risks
- Colombia’s economic rebound continues, thanks to falling inflation and resilient services…
- …But other sector performances remain uneven and fragile, and financial volatility poses a growing risk.
- The US–China trade war is a threat to key exports and investment; domestic policy options are narrowing.
- In LatAm, Mexico is by far the most exposed to US tariffs and global economic slowdown risk.
- Commodity-price declines and Chinese weakness add fresh headwinds to regional export growth.
- Currency volatility, weaker remittances and soft capex will drag, but rate cuts offer relief.
- Argentina has begun to dismantle the ‘cepo’, marking an historic shift towards currency normalisation.
- The FX liberalisation narrows gaps, boosts confidence and marks a break from past interventionism.
- Short-term inflation risks prevail, but fiscal and monetary tightening are restoring macro discipline.
- February’s surge in Mexican industrial output likely reflects temporary front-loading to beat tariff risk.
- Long-term nearshoring prospects clash with short-term volatility and tightening financial conditions.
- Global trade tensions and currency volatility drove BCRP’s decision to hold interest rates steady.
- Inflation in Brazil exceeded expectations in March, due mainly to food, as weather and supply shocks persist.
- Activity data point to solid momentum, but industrial output is dropping and leading indicators softening.
- Fiscal risk and BRL weakness complicate COPOM’s task, despite signs of inflation pressures easing ahead.
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
- In one line: Solid February bounce, but underlying weakness remains
- In one line: On hold amid global uncertainty, but door remains open to cut.
