Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
- Lower electricity tariffs and softer food prices pushed Mexico’s headline inflation back into target range.
- Persistent services inflation and housing costs continue to delay a sustained downward trend.
- Oil prices, USMCA uncertainty and El Niño keep inflation risks tilted upward.
- Colombia’s inflation pressures are broadening, delaying further progress towards BanRep’s target…
- …Housing, services and food are keeping Colombian inflation elevated despite restrictive monetary policy.
- Chile’s benign CPI suggests the oil-price pass-through is limited and largely contained, for now.
- Industrial output in Brazil enters Q2 solidly, supported by commodities and resilient demand.
- Manufacturing and capital goods continue to lag, highlighting weak capex and high real rates.
- Persistent inflation and tariff risks threaten to prolong industry’s uneven recovery in H2.
- Markets favour Keiko Fujimori, but Peru’s run-off will still test confidence in institutional stability…
- …Inflation is heading north, leaving the next administration with less room for policy mistakes.
- Food prices eased in Colombia, but services, rents and utilities keep inflation pressures elevated overall.
- Brazilian Real — Rally pauses as policy risks rise
- Mexican peso — Strong fundamentals, but risks abound
- Colombian peso — Politics now the market driver
LATAM’S DISINFLATION STORY IS BREAKING DOWN
- OIL, POLITICS AND FISCAL RISKS KEEP CENTRAL BANKS ON ALERT
- El Niño could complicate LatAm’s inflation outlook just as geopolitical risks keep energy prices elevated.
- Argentina stands to benefit, while Colombia faces the region’s largest inflation risk.
- Disruption to food, energy and logistics could widen macroeconomic divergences across the region.
- Mr. de la Espriella enters Colombia’s run-off with momentum, likely backed by Ms. Valencia’s voters.
- Chile’s recovery remains fragile as mining weakness persists; non-mining sectors are struggling…
- …Business confidence points to a recovey ahead, but activity data remain stubbornly weak.
- Broad-based Q1 growth highlights resilient domestic demand in Brazil, despite a high Selic rate.
- Fiscal and credit support are cushioning activity, though underlying capex is less convincing.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the BCB cautious and slow the easing cycle.
- Mr. de la Espriella and Mr. Cepeda appear to be heading for a highly polarised run-off in Colombia.
- Security issues and fatigue with the Petro administration increasingly favour the opposition.
- A political shift will likely improve sentiment, but the structural vulnerabilities will remain.
- In one line: Inflation pressures remained broad-based in May.
- Capex and construction in Peru continue to drive one of LatAm’s strongest recoveries…
- …But higher oil prices and persistent core inflation complicate the BCRP’s policy outlook.
- Political uncertainty and tighter global conditions threaten momentum over the coming quarters.
- In one line: Retail sales remain resilient, but momentum still looks soft.
- Retail sales remain resilient in Mexico, though discretionary demand looks uneven and selective.
- Banxico’s latest communication strongly suggests the easing cycle has now ended.
- Restrictive real rates likely will continue to curb credit and discretionary spending in H2.
- Consumption and fiscal support continue to cushion activity in Brazil, despite high interest rates
- Investment and confidence indicators point to softer domestic demand over the next three-to-six months.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the COPOM cautious about further easing.
- Brazil — Institutional tensions deepen
- Mexico — Morena facing mounting pressure
- Colombia — Violence reshaping presidential election
- Primary sectors dragged Chilean growth lower in Q1, despite relatively resilient domestic demand.
- Higher oil prices now threaten inflation, household incomes and the external accounts simultaneously.
- Weak activity will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite elevated external uncertainty and inflation risks.
- In one line: External weakness and mining dragged GDP lower in Q1.
- In one line: Activity softened at the end of Q1.
