Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.
OIL SHOCK FEEDS INTO INFLATION, DELAYING EASING CYCLES
- DISINFLATION STALLS, CENTRAL BANKS TURN MORE CAUTIOUS
- In one line: Activity contracted sharply in Q1, and the outlook is difficult.
- Brazil’s COPOM continued its cautious easing, as rising inflation risk limits scope for greater action…
- …The oil shock and fiscal uncertainty complicate the policy outlook, reinforcing the need for gradual cuts.
- Oil-related inflation risks rise, while weaker domestic activity keeps BCCh firmly in wait-and-see mode.
- In one line: The oil shock is now feeding through more forcefully into headline inflation.
- Brazil’s inflation story is shifting; external shocks are driving a renewed increase in prices.
- The key challenge now is to stop a temporary shock becoming persistent; the COPOM will be cautious.
- Exports are surging in Mexico on non-manufacturing strength, but weak capex limits broader gains.
- Activity is weakening in Argentina, with domestic sectors lagging behind primary sectors.
- Growth is becoming less labour-intensive; external sectors are solid while domestic demand is subdued.
- The export-led recovery looks sustainable, but weak consumption and capex mean uneven growth in Q2.
- In one line: Labour market holds up, but activity is weakening.
- In one line: Disinflation is slow, and demand is beginning to weaken.
- IGAE data in Mexico confirm slowing growth, with industry weak and services losing support.
- Labour market remains tight, but employment growth slows as activity weakens and capex stays subdued.
- Banxico will ease gradually, as weaker growth builds slack but inflation keeps policy restrictive.
- Inflation continues to ease in Mexico, but core pressures are sticky and non-core volatility persists.
- Retail sales are weakening, with tighter financial conditions and remittances weighing on households.
- Banxico will ease cautiously as slower growth supports cuts but persistent inflation limits the pace.
- Consumption is driving activity in Colombia, but it is concentrated in durable goods and sensitive to rates.
- Industry and primary sectors remain weak, highlighting structural issues and fragile growth dynamics.
- Tighter financial conditions will weigh on demand, with the slowdown led by key consumption segments.
- Core inflation in Argentina remains elevated, as indexation and second-round effects still bite.
- Temporary shocks are fading slowly as fuel, tariffs and food prices are feeding broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy credibility holds, but a high inflation floor implies a slower and less even disinflation path this year.
- Consumption remains resilient in Brazil, but mostly in essentials; discretionary spending is struggling.
- Rising oil prices increase inflation risk, forcing a slower and more cautious monetary easing path.
- Growth is holding up, but momentum is fading as activity becomes less broad-based and more fragile.
- In one line: Activity remains firm, but momentum is clearly slowing.
- In one line: A modest rebound, but underlying demand remains weak.
- Brazil — Election tightens as fiscal loosening intensifies
- Argentina — Reform agenda faces judicial limits
- Colombia — Run-off maths dominate
- Colombia’s fiscal anchor has gone, as deficits, rising debt and weak revenues undermine credibility.
- Inflation pressures are persistent and broader, forcing BanRep to tighten despite growth already softening.
- COP resilience looks fragile, with markets likely to drive a correction via interest rates and FX.
- The shock from Camisea disruption and higher oil prices drives broad-based inflation pressures in Peru.
- The core inflation spike signals wider cost pressures, raising risks of persistence and second-round effects.
- The BCRP is likely to stay on hold, but risks are now tilted towards tightening sooner than expected.
- Fuel and food drove inflation in Brazil, but broader price pressures are now beginning to emerge.
- Disinflation persists in parts of the basket, but momentum is slowing and becoming uneven.
- The COPOM will continue easing cautiously, as higher inflation and risks limit scope for aggressive cuts.
