PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation stays contained, supporting a rate cut this month.

PM Datanote: GDP, Third Quarter, Brazil, 2025

• In one line: Growth almost stalls as industry steadies and agriculture rebounds.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October, 2025

• In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

2 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile enters Q4 with firmer growth; political clarity will boost confidence

• The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand
  lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
• …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer
  momentum heading into early 2026.
• Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline
  under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.

November 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS

• POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE

1 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January

• Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
• A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
• Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.

26 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation and retail data support Banxico's cautious policy

• Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s 
  data-dependent easing.
• Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
• Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.

25 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's overheating economy tests BanRep's inflation resolve

• Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
• Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
• High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.

24 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's recovery stalls as technical recession looms in H2

• Mexico’s Q3 GDP contraction confirms momentum has stalled, with a base-effect-driven recession likely.
• Industrial weakness, soft job markets and fading public investment continue to weigh on activity.
• Lower interest rates and easing inflation will support a mild 2026 upturn, contingent on trade clarity.

PM Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q3, 2025

• In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.

20 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Political noise and policy risks mount across the region

• Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
• Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
• Colombia —  Risks rising ahead of 2026 election

19 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile facing decisive run-off after fragmented first round boosts right

• Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
• …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
• Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, September, 2025

• In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.

18 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile's first round fragmented

• Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
• Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
• Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, November, 2025

• In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.

17 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's inflation outlook is deteriorating; BanRep cautious

• Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
• The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
• Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, September, 2025

• In one line: Weak end to Q3 confirms sluggish household demand amid tight financial conditions.