Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.
- Base effects lifted Brazil’s inflation in January, but underlying price pressures were contained…
- …The COPOM is set to begin its easing cycle in March as inflation expectations remain anchored.
- The BCRP held rates at 4.25% as inflation converges to target, but we still see room for further easing.
- In one line: Disinflation on track despite January uptick.
- Mexican inflation stays contained but firmer core inflation justifies Banxico’s cautious pause.
- Non-core disinflation offsets tax-driven core stickiness leaving policy easing gradual in Q2.
- Colombia’s January CPI surge reflects the minimum-wage hike and the stalling convergence to target.
- Sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures prompt the first policy pause by Banxico since March 2024.
- Rate cuts will resume once inflation moderates, with credibility guiding policy calibration.
- Chile’s inflation remains well contained, despite seasonal increases across several components.
- Chile’s IMACEC rebounded, led by commerce, services and resilient domestic demand momentum.
- Falling inflation, pension-reform liquidity and easier credit conditions set a positive tone for H1.
- Banxico pauses easing as sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures delay convergence to target.
- In one line: Industrial momentum weakens; outlook remains subdued.
- Brazilian Real — Carry, and USD weakness
- Chilean Peso — Copper rally and policy credibility
- Mexican Peso — Strong start to the year, but…
- Brazil’s Q4 industrial weakness confirms a recession in the sector due to tight financial conditions.
- Sentiment has stabilised, but demand remains soft as high rates constrain manufacturing activity.
- A March rate cut will likely support a gradual recovery, but downside risks remain elevated.
- A 100bp rate hike signals alarm over inflation expectations after Colombia’s huge minimum-wage increase.
- Board divisions, fiscal slippage and fuel subsidies complicate BanRep’s efforts to restore policy credibility.
- Strong demand and tight job markets force the Bank to prioritise controlling inflation over near-term growth.
STARTING Q1 WITH SOFT GROWTH AND SELECTIVE POLICY EASING
- DISINFLATION HELPS, BUT POLITICS DOMINATE THE OUTLOOK
- In one line: Solid Q4 rebound eases recession fears.
- Mexico's Q4 rebound reflects gains in both industry and services, offsetting the hit to agriculture.
- Domestic demand is improving slowly, but weak capex, fiscal constraints and trade uncertainty remain drags.
- Banxico will pause easing as inflation remains sticky, and temporary upside shocks warrant attention.
- Ongoing disinflation, cooling activity and BRL strength allow Brazil's COPOM to prepare for cautious easing…
- …The guidance has shifted to a calibration of easing, making a March rate cut the clear baseline.
- The BCCh held rates, signalling patience as disinflation outpaces expectations; further easing remains likely.
- In one line: Upside pressures localised; picture remains benign.
- The IPCA-15 confirms Brazil's inflation is contained, pressures localised, and disinflation trends firmly intact.
- Soft demand, a strong BRL and anchored inflation expectations support a March start to rate cuts.
- The external accounts remain relatively solid, allowing gradual Selic cuts without destabilising capital flows.
- Public spending and strong consumption drive activity in Colombia, while industry remains uneven.
- A widening trade deficit, record remittances and rising import intensity are reshaping the external picture.
- The minimum-wage shock is lifting inflation expectations, forcing BanRep to tighten further.
- In one line: Activity falters in November; growth constraints persist.
- Activity in Argentina slipped in November, exposing weak momentum after the mid-term elections…
- …Manufacturing and commerce output fell sharply, while growth is focused on low-employment sectors.
- BCCh will pause amid easing inflation, BCB will hold despite stickiness, and BanRep will tighten as risks rise.
- In one line: Retail sales stabilises, but risks remain.
