Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Milei has been busy in his first month in charge of Argentina’s economy, but it hasn’t been easy.
- Inflation turned out a bit better than expected, at a still-ugly 211%, the highest since 1990.
- The IMF backed Milei’s economic plan, approving the next disbursement under the current deal.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation continues in Peru, as temporary shocks fade and domestic demand remains sluggish.
- We look for the BCRP to reduce rates to about 5% by the end of H1 2024...
- ...But risks to the inflation outlook have increased at the margin in recent days, particularly geopolitics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation pressures in Brazil remained under control at the end of 2023, as domestic demand eased.
- Favourable inertia effects and the BRL’s performance in recent quarters will push inflation down in H1.
- Further good news on the inflation story in Colombia; the COP’s rebound last year will be a drag in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — At an all-time high, and 2024 looks solid
- Mexico — Improving, but elections could bring noise
- Chile — Rally to continue after political risk eases
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico edged up in December, chiefly due to non-core pressures, as bad weather hit.
- Core inflation continues to fall, at the margin, thanks to the lagged effect of the MXN rebound last year.
- We expect Banxico to cut rates next month, but poor weather conditions could delay action to March.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation continues in Chile, which will allow BCCh to accelerate the pace of monetary easing.
- Fighting a subpar economic recovery is now BCCh’s priority, assuming the CLP remains under control.
- Improving external accounts are allowing bolder action, and pointing to a capex contraction in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm economic activity is under pressure, helping to bring inflation back under control.
- Still-tight financial conditions are hurting key sectors, but the economic outlook will improve soon.
- Rate cuts will help to revive activity, but increased political and geopolitical uncertainty is a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FALTERING AND INFLATION FALLING...
- ...BUT CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN CAUTIOUS, FOR NOW
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A soft start to the quarter, despite the strong-looking headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The easing cycle has started in Colombia, as the economy struggles and thanks to the Fed’s shift.
- Chile’s BCCh accelerated the pace of easing, as inflation is falling and economic activity faltering.
- The trajectory of the Fed’s policy will determine the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts in LatAm.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Political noise on the increase
- Chile — Certainty after the constitutional vote?
- Peru — Calm for now
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Milei has rolled up his sleeves, announcing concrete measures to put the economy on track.
- Inflation rebounded sharply in November, and the rapid uptrend will persist over the first half of 2024.
- Chile rejected a constitution proposal for the second time in a year; does this mean uncertainty?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm central banks pushed back on aggressive rate-cut expectations, despite the Fed’s policy shift.
- Banxico doubled down on its cautious approach, but we still think that rate cuts will come soon.
- Peru’s BCRP also embraced prudence, but bolder action will be possible in Q1, El Niño permitting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
