- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s core inflation is contained, allowing Banxico to cut rates despite mounting global trade uncertainty.
- Job creation improved slightly in March, but the Q1 performance signals deeper structural weakness.
- Brazil’s retail resilience faces mounting pressure from labour-market cooling and tight credit.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexican Peso — Exposed to further tariff noise
- Argentinian Peso — Stability or mirage
- Colombian Peso — Under stress from oil and trade shocks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s disinflation resumed in March, and still-tight financial conditions will help it continue in Q2…
- …But the COP’s sell-off amid trade tensions will limit disinflation’s progress and hurt import costs.
- Chile’s inflation rebounded in March but will slow in Q2, although trade volatility raises new risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A muted tariff hit masks deeper vulnerabilities in trade exposure, export composition and market volatility.
- Central banks will shift gear as the trade shock, falling capex and weak demand cloud the outlook.
- Peru’s disinflation is on track, but the trade war is a threat to the relatively benign outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Trump’s tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on LatAm’s prospects, despite it not being hit too hard.
- Mexico is aiming for fiscal discipline, but rising debt and optimistic forecasts threaten its credibility, again.
- Structural reforms, a Pemex overhaul and looking beyond the US are key to stabilising its debt outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- USMCA compliance shields Mexico, for now, as tariff risks shift to non-aligning sectors.
- The US tariff war creates winners in LatAm, as Asia bears the brunt, but collateral damage is a threat.
- Faltering sentiment and tight financial conditions are weighing on Brazil’s industrial sector.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Reduced confidence and tight financial conditions are drags.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep left rates on hold, due to persistent inflation pressures despite mixed progress…
- …But new Board members boost the doves’ influence, hinting at potential rate cuts ahead, COP permitting.
- Chile’s IMACEC highlights temporary setbacks in the recovery, but fundamentals point to sustained growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economic data for February show weakness, but growth momentum remains positive for Q1.
- Geopolitical tensions and the US trade war threaten Chile’s trade-dependent economy and key sectors.
- Argentina’s economy has started Q1 on a solid footing, but key challenges are emerging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Poor headlines, but we think growth momentum will remain positive in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico extends easing with another 50bp cut, citing disinflation and weakening economic activity.
- Policymakers are likely to maintain their pace near term, before gradually shifting to smaller rate cuts.
- US auto tariffs threaten Mexico’s exports, manufacturing supply chains and capex outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
CENTRAL BANKS FACE A COMPLEX EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT…
- …VIGILANCE AND POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- March IPCA-15 data show inflation rising due to temporary shocks in food and transportation costs.
- Inflation is likely to average 5.5% in Q2 before stabilising in H2, but wholesale prices signal upside risks.
- The current account deficit widened sharply, but FDI remains a positive sign, despite external noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico can press on with further easing tomorrow thanks to muted inflation and softening growth.
- Weakening domestic demand signals room for rate cuts, as policymakers monitor external risks.
- The MXN rebound and subdued core pressures support gradual easing, despite lingering threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s BCCh held rates again, highlighting inflation risks, a resilient domestic economy and tariff threats.
- The IPoM shows the economy growing more than expected despite global uncertainty and trade tensions.
- Disinflation is likely to continue, and output will be limited by trade noise, allowing rate cuts later this year.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
