- Inflation pressures in Brazil deepened in April, driven by food and healthcare, with risks tilted upwards.
- The BCB will hike on May 7 as it battles sticky services inflation; will it move to the sidelines thereafter?
- Fiscal fragility and currency volatility complicate the policy mix, threatening inflation and market stability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Retail momentum softens in February after January’s rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In LatAm, Mexico is by far the most exposed to US tariffs and global economic slowdown risk.
- Commodity-price declines and Chinese weakness add fresh headwinds to regional export growth.
- Currency volatility, weaker remittances and soft capex will drag, but rate cuts offer relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina has begun to dismantle the ‘cepo’, marking an historic shift towards currency normalisation.
- The FX liberalisation narrows gaps, boosts confidence and marks a break from past interventionism.
- Short-term inflation risks prevail, but fiscal and monetary tightening are restoring macro discipline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Solid February bounce, but underlying weakness remains
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold amid global uncertainty, but door remains open to cut.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resilience masks broader risk of a slowdown.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Trump’s tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on LatAm’s prospects, despite it not being hit too hard.
- Mexico is aiming for fiscal discipline, but rising debt and optimistic forecasts threaten its credibility, again.
- Structural reforms, a Pemex overhaul and looking beyond the US are key to stabilising its debt outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Reduced confidence and tight financial conditions are drags.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Poor headlines, but we think growth momentum will remain positive in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico extends easing with another 50bp cut, citing disinflation and weakening economic activity.
- Policymakers are likely to maintain their pace near term, before gradually shifting to smaller rate cuts.
- US auto tariffs threaten Mexico’s exports, manufacturing supply chains and capex outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
CENTRAL BANKS FACE A COMPLEX EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT…
- …VIGILANCE AND POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s economy enjoyed a solid end to 2024, and the outlook remains benign, though not risk-free.
- Growth prospects are driven by exports, capex, structural improvements in key sectors, and disinflation.
- Mr. Milei will have to balance fiscal discipline with IMF negotiations and political resistance to reforms.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
