Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Banxico delivered another rate cut, but firmer inflation and guidance point to pauses ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and fiscal changes narrow the Bank’s space to ease heading into early 2026.
- The weakness of growth supports cuts, yet external risks and credibility worries limit the options.
- Mexico’s industrial rebound in October reflects only base effects and construction timing.
- Manufacturing remains under strain, as US demand softens and trade policy uncertainty freezes capex.
- USMCA-renewal and tariff risks will dominate industry’s performance more than domestic demand.
- In one line: Retail gains signal early stabilisation.
- In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.
- In one line: Inflation stays contained, supporting a rate cut this month.
- Contained inflation with a broad-based moderation allows BCCh to resume gradual easing soon…
- …CLP strength, lower food and oil prices, and relatively soft demand support a benign disinflation outlook.
- Mexico’s ambitious wage push will strain productivity, intensify inflation risks, and test Banxico.
- In one line: Growth almost stalls as industry steadies and agriculture rebounds.
- In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.
LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS
- POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE
- Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
- A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
- Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.
- Mexico’s Q3 GDP contraction confirms momentum has stalled, with a base-effect-driven recession likely.
- Industrial weakness, soft job markets and fading public investment continue to weigh on activity.
- Lower interest rates and easing inflation will support a mild 2026 upturn, contingent on trade clarity.
- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
- The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
- Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.
- In one line: Weak end to Q3 confirms sluggish household demand amid tight financial conditions.
- In one line: Inflation eases, pointing to softer Q4 average.
- In one line: Headline inflation drops again in October, supporting Banxico’s cautious easing path.
- Core inflation in Mexico remains stubborn near 4%, prompting Banxico to add a hawkish tilt to its tone.
- GDP growth is weakening as industry shrinks and consumption stagnates amid tighter credit conditions.
- Further rate cuts will hinge on stable inflation, fiscal prudence and limited trade disruption.
- In one line: Cautious COPOM holds steady amid uncertainty.
