Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Mexico’s economy is showing modest resilience, supported by manufacturing and services.
- Consumption is underpinned by wages and remittances, but capex is weakening amid trade tensions.
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding up, but industry is deteriorating due to US tariffs and tight policy.
- Inflation in Brazil eased to 5.0% in August, helped by falling food prices and stronger BRL support.
- GDP growth slowed sharply in Q2, as earlier momentum in agriculture, industry and services faded.
- US tariffs and widening external deficits remain risks, keeping the COPOM cautious and Selic rate at 15%.
- Banxico opted for a smaller rate cut, balancing better headline inflation against sticky core pressures.
- Its updated forecasts show headline inflation easing but core elevated, delaying convergence to target.
- The more gradual 25bp pace is likely to continue, with data-dependency guiding further cuts in 2025.
- Mexico’s industrial and service sectors rebounded in Q2, offsetting weak agriculture.
- The US tariff extension brings near-term relief, supporting manufacturing, exports and capex.
- Domestic policy volatility, weak sentiment and a real wage slowdown still weigh on broader momentum.
- Headline inflation is stabilising in Brazil, but services remain sticky amid wage pressures.
- A stronger BRL and falling input prices are helping, but tariff noise and politics cloud the outlook.
- PMIs signal weakening activity; firms are cutting back on hiring and capex as confidence deteriorates.
- Most regional currencies have rallied on still-attractive carry and resilient terms-of-trade.
- Trade tensions with the US are reigniting inflation worries and complicating monetary policy decisions.
- Central banks face narrowing scope for cuts, as political risk and global uncertainty intensify.
- Disinflation resumes in Mexico, but core pressures linger, led by services.
- External weakness weighs on manufacturing, but interest rate cuts offer relief.
- Construction rebounds, but trade tensions and weak US demand are a drag on industrial recovery.
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
- Banxico cut, but one dissenting vote signals caution as inflation expectations drift further from the target.
- Forward guidance was softer; the Board dropped the reference to steady cuts, indicating a possible pause.
- Weak domestic demand supports disinflation; real rates remain well above neutral.
- The COPOM defied consensus, raising the Selic to 15.00%, and signalled a hawkish extended pause.
- Persistent inflation and deanchored expectations are keeping Brazil’s policy tight despite activity slowing.
- Chile’s BCCh paused again; easing will depend on data amid resilient growth and global headwinds.
- A stronger BRL and improved food supply helped ease headline inflation pressures in Brazil in May.
- Services and regulated prices continue to drive core inflation above the BCB’s 3% target.
- The BCB will hold rates, but fiscal risk and global uncertainty threaten to derail the recent price stability.
- A record agricultural harvest fuelled Brazil’s Q1 growth, but momentum is likely to slow.
- Services and capex held up, while industrial output shrank due to restrictive monetary policy.
- The job market’s resilience complicates the COPOM’s position, but conditions will deteriorate soon enough.
- Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed sharply in Q1, thanks to resilient exports and remittance inflows.
- Financial inflows weakened amid US trade tensions, global volatility, and domestic political uncertainty.
- The proposed US remittance tax and economic slow- down threaten to disrupt Mexico’s external stability.
- Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
- Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
- Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.
- Headline and core inflation in Mexico rose in April, driven mainly by seasonal services price rises…
- …But underlying trends are contained and demand remains subdued, allowing Banxico to cut this week.
- Peru’s BCRP cut rates to 4.50% and signalled a shift towards neutral, as inflation is well anchored, for now.
- Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
- BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
- Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating fundamentals.
- Inflation pressures in Brazil deepened in April, driven by food and healthcare, with risks tilted upwards.
- The BCB will hike on May 7 as it battles sticky services inflation; will it move to the sidelines thereafter?
- Fiscal fragility and currency volatility complicate the policy mix, threatening inflation and market stability.
- In LatAm, Mexico is by far the most exposed to US tariffs and global economic slowdown risk.
- Commodity-price declines and Chinese weakness add fresh headwinds to regional export growth.
- Currency volatility, weaker remittances and soft capex will drag, but rate cuts offer relief.
- Argentina has begun to dismantle the ‘cepo’, marking an historic shift towards currency normalisation.
- The FX liberalisation narrows gaps, boosts confidence and marks a break from past interventionism.
- Short-term inflation risks prevail, but fiscal and monetary tightening are restoring macro discipline.
- Mr. Trump’s tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on LatAm’s prospects, despite it not being hit too hard.
- Mexico is aiming for fiscal discipline, but rising debt and optimistic forecasts threaten its credibility, again.
- Structural reforms, a Pemex overhaul and looking beyond the US are key to stabilising its debt outlook.
