- In one line: Retail momentum softens in February after January’s rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s surprise inflation rebound in early April reflects temporary shocks…
- …Primarily the lagged effect of MXN depreciation, rather than a fundamental shift in the inflation trend.
- Retail sales point to a broader slowdown in domestic demand, despite a better-than-expected Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Uncertainty and fiscal risks resurfacing
- Mexico — Reforms and trade noise persist
- Colombia — Reform gamble deepens risks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economic rebound continues, thanks to falling inflation and resilient services…
- …But other sector performances remain uneven and fragile, and financial volatility poses a growing risk.
- The US–China trade war is a threat to key exports and investment; domestic policy options are narrowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- February’s surge in Mexican industrial output likely reflects temporary front-loading to beat tariff risk.
- Long-term nearshoring prospects clash with short-term volatility and tightening financial conditions.
- Global trade tensions and currency volatility drove BCRP’s decision to hold interest rates steady.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Brazil exceeded expectations in March, due mainly to food, as weather and supply shocks persist.
- Activity data point to solid momentum, but industrial output is dropping and leading indicators softening.
- Fiscal risk and BRL weakness complicate COPOM’s task, despite signs of inflation pressures easing ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Solid February bounce, but underlying weakness remains
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold amid global uncertainty, but door remains open to cut.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resilience masks broader risk of a slowdown.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s core inflation is contained, allowing Banxico to cut rates despite mounting global trade uncertainty.
- Job creation improved slightly in March, but the Q1 performance signals deeper structural weakness.
- Brazil’s retail resilience faces mounting pressure from labour-market cooling and tight credit.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexican Peso — Exposed to further tariff noise
- Argentinian Peso — Stability or mirage
- Colombian Peso — Under stress from oil and trade shocks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s disinflation resumed in March, and still-tight financial conditions will help it continue in Q2…
- …But the COP’s sell-off amid trade tensions will limit disinflation’s progress and hurt import costs.
- Chile’s inflation rebounded in March but will slow in Q2, although trade volatility raises new risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A muted tariff hit masks deeper vulnerabilities in trade exposure, export composition and market volatility.
- Central banks will shift gear as the trade shock, falling capex and weak demand cloud the outlook.
- Peru’s disinflation is on track, but the trade war is a threat to the relatively benign outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- USMCA compliance shields Mexico, for now, as tariff risks shift to non-aligning sectors.
- The US tariff war creates winners in LatAm, as Asia bears the brunt, but collateral damage is a threat.
- Faltering sentiment and tight financial conditions are weighing on Brazil’s industrial sector.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Reduced confidence and tight financial conditions are drags.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep left rates on hold, due to persistent inflation pressures despite mixed progress…
- …But new Board members boost the doves’ influence, hinting at potential rate cuts ahead, COP permitting.
- Chile’s IMACEC highlights temporary setbacks in the recovery, but fundamentals point to sustained growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
