Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Datanotes Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Benign inflation print supports a cautious Banxico rate cut.
- The benign inflation report supports a 50bp cut, but a divided Banxico will likely slow the easing pace in H2.
- Services inflation is sticky; housing, wage and food costs are delaying disinflation despite a MXN rebound.
- Private demand and capex lead growth in Argentina, but external imbalances and fiscal risks remain high.
- In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.
- A rebound in manufacturing and services lifted Mexico’s output in April, but momentum is weak.
- Consumption faces pressure from high rates, labour-market stress, and fading support from remittances.
- Colombia’s proposed ballot sidesteps legal processes, raising institutional fears.
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
- Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
- Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
- Colombia — Violence, reform and fiscal crisis
- Sticky core inflation and electricity-price risks will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite progress on disinflation.
- Gradual CLP appreciation and subdued domestic demand will allow further rate cuts in Q3.
- Colombia’s MTFF signals rising risks amid political urgency; fiscal relief today, higher debt tomorrow.
- Sticky services and volatile food prices cloud Banxico’s outlook, despite weaker domestic demand.
- Disinflation will resume soon, allowing Banxico to proceed with gradual rate cuts.
- Brazil’s economic growth is slowing in Q2, as agriculture normalises and tight financial conditions bite.
- In one line: Disinflation remains on track.
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- Capex and consumption have weakened in Mexico as high rates and trade tensions dampen confidence.
- Construction and machinery output have slumped, with tight policy and little appetite for long-term capex.
- Banxico’s rate cuts and the USMCA revision will bring limited relief given the persistent structural challenges.
- Brazilian Real — Stable, but risks loom ahead
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief
- Colombian Peso — Top-performing LatAm FX in May
- Brazil’s industry weakened in April, hit by falling domestic demand and a difficult external backdrop.
- Sectoral data show a broad-based decline, under- scoring structural strains and fading external support.
- Mexico’s first judicial election saw a low turnout, political interference and risks to independence.
- In one line: Recovery maintaining a solid pace, but external headwinds still loom.
- Mining and services offset weak industrial output in Chile, providing a solid base for Q2 growth.
- Business sentiment improved slightly but remains fragile, with construction still the weakest link.
- Peru’s inflation is well under control, led by cheaper food and fuel prices; the BCRP is likely to cut soon.
TRADE TRUCE BRINGS LATAM MODEST GAINS…
- …BUT DOMESTIC FRAGILITIES UNDERMINE GROWTH PROSPECTS
- In one line: Boosted by agriculture and capex, but momentum set to fade.
- In one line: Retail softens in April, but growth momentum is holding up.
- No formal steps towards constitutional change have been taken, yet, despite Mr. Petro’s fiery rhetoric.
- Low protest turnout and legislative hurdles suggest Mr. Petro’s political project is losing momentum fast.
- Peru’s economy started 2025 strongly, supported by primary sectors and resilient domestic demand.
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
