Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Chile’s economic recovery gained momentum despite still-tight financial conditions and external noise.
- Q4 growth was driven by private consumption and capex; manufacturing and construction lagged.
- External risks remain significant and will prevent the BCCh from cutting rates to neutral any time soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm central banks face a complex external environment; vigilance and policy adjustments are needed.
- The BCRP remained cautious amid global risks and strong economic activity, despite falling inflation.
- Brazil’s economic activity is slowing despite initial optimism in its early-2025 performance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s retail sector is struggling as spending weakens amid uncertainty and higher interest rates.
- The service sector is slowing; high borrowing costs and softening labour-market conditions are drags.
- The trade war forces central banks to adopt a cautious approach, delaying a faster regional economic upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation in February hit its highest rate since 2023, as underlying pressures are persisting, for now.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in January, with trade-war uncertainty weighing heavily.
- The manufacturing sector is struggling as US tariffs threaten Mexico’s economic backbone and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A modest performance amid volatility
- Mexico — Hit by US tariff policy uncertainty
- Colombia — Oil, tariffs and politics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- High interest rates and global demand weakness are weighing on Brazil’s industrial production.
- Persistent inflation pressures challenge Colombia’s BanRep, delaying rate cuts and stifling growth.
- High indexation and labour costs will keep inflation above the Bank’s target in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s inflation is edging higher on base effects, but underlying trends remain favourable for Banxico.
- Chile’s disinflation resumed in February after an electricity-tariff shock, but BCCh is likely to stay cautious.
- Policy easing will face headwinds from the tariff noise, commodity prices and currency movements.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The US tariff delay brings temporary relief, but uncertainty looms beyond April; capex will still be hurt.
- Brazil’s real GDP slowed sharply in Q4, due to falling private consumption and softening capex.
- H1 will be better, at face value, thanks to robust agricultural output and government stimulus.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy is struggling as tariffs noise fuel uncertainty, weighing on trade, capex and confidence.
- Private consumption and investment are plunging; remittances from the US face growing threats.
- Colombia’s external accounts are seeing lower deficits, robust remittances and an improving outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Argentinian Peso — Path to stability, US permitting
- Chilean Peso — Solid domestic drivers
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy started Q1 on a solid footing, thanks mainly to increased private consumption.
- Solid economic momentum likely will persist ahead, but a softening labour market is a threat.
- Colombia’s job market is improving, and 2025 will be solid, as Mr. Petro’s presidency nears its end.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Milei has achieved the ‘miracle’ of macro stabilisation without wrecking Argentina’s economy.
- The sectoral performance highlights strength in agriculture, mining and retail; construction lags behind.
- Peru’s disinflation is continuing, still within the central bank’s target range amid external uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s labour market remained resilient in January, at face value, but is showing some signs of cooling.
- The current account deficit increased in January, but the underlying picture remains benign.
- Foreign investment beat expectations, despite a difficult external and domestic backdrop.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s external accounts are still healthy, but thanks to a solid H1 2024; risks emerged in Q4.
- Trade uncertainty likely will deter new investment, particularly in H1; remittances will face volatility.
- The labour market remains strong, at face value, but signs of weakening are becoming clearer.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Brazil rose less than expected in February, despite a spike in electricity tariffs.
- Weakening domestic demand will keep inflation pressures in check, but a range of issues remain.
- Mexico’s external accounts are under control, but both external and domestic issues cloud the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Core inflation is under control, allowing Banxico to eye a 50bp rate cut, but trade tensions loom.
- The benign February inflation report reinforces the dovish stance, yet US tariffs could cloud the outlook.
- In Argentina, Mr. Milei’s austerity is keeping the fiscal recovery on track, but trade tensions are rising.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP contracted in Q4, with weak industrial and agricultural sectors driving the decline.
- The IGAE point to a subpar Q1; rising external— trade—uncertainty weighs heavily on growth.
- Banxico faces a tough balancing act, as inflation risks and policy noise cloud its rate-cut decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
- Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Trade, security and tariffs
- Colombia — Leadership on shaky ground
- Chile — Presidential race gathering momentum
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic slowdown is deepening and will force the COPOM to end its tightening cycle soon.
- Colombia’s economy gathered speed in Q4, thanks to lower interest rates and despite political noise.
- Leading indicators point to a healthy H1, though some sectors will continue to lag behind the upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
