Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
- …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
- BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
- Headline inflation is stabilising in Brazil, but services remain sticky amid wage pressures.
- A stronger BRL and falling input prices are helping, but tariff noise and politics cloud the outlook.
- PMIs signal weakening activity; firms are cutting back on hiring and capex as confidence deteriorates.
- Disinflation has resumed in Mexico, driven by softer food and energy prices; services are still a challenge.
- Favourable base effects, a stronger MXN and subdued demand continue to support disinflation.
- July data support a 25bp Banxico rate cut, as structural pressure limits the magnitude of easing.
- Mexico’s IGAE data show resilience, yet fading services and capex signal weak momentum into H2.
- Labour-market softness is deepening, with job creation stalling and real wage growth slowing further.
- Banxico is facing pressure to ease, but sticky core services inflation will constrain the pace of cuts.
- Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
- The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
- Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.
- Most regional currencies have rallied on still-attractive carry and resilient terms-of-trade.
- Trade tensions with the US are reigniting inflation worries and complicating monetary policy decisions.
- Central banks face narrowing scope for cuts, as political risk and global uncertainty intensify.
- Retail and industrial data in Colombia point to a broad-based recovery, despite political volatility.
- A stronger COP, easing inflation and resilient job market are fuelling durable goods consumption.
- Mr. Petro’s proposals, tax reform and external risks still cloud the investment outlook heading into 2026.
- Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
- Mexico — Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
- Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs
- Disinflation is accelerating in Argentina, with headline and core prices reaching multi-year lows in June.
- Tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to anchor expectations, despite the ARS and political noise.
- BCRP held at 4.5%, signalling caution amid global uncertainty and anchored inflation expectations.
- Brazil’s weakness in industry and services highlights the growing drag from tighter financial conditions.
- Mr. Trump’s tariff move threatens exports, investment and already-fragile economic momentum.
- Mexico has also been hit by the tariff noise, but markets are still betting on a negotiated outcome.
- Disinflation resumes in Mexico, but core pressures linger, led by services.
- External weakness weighs on manufacturing, but interest rate cuts offer relief.
- Construction rebounds, but trade tensions and weak US demand are a drag on industrial recovery.
- Brazil’s inflation is stabilising, but the US tariffs shock threatens growth and adds new inflation risks.
- Market reaction has been swift, but fundamentals and carry still support a stable BRL outlook.
- Services inflation remains sticky and disinflation could stall if external strains persist or escalate.
- Brazil — New highs, but risks cloud the outlook
- Mexico — Rally cools as policy risks resurface
- Chile — IPSA steadies post-rally, with upside scope
- Chile’s CPI drop strengthens the case for a July rate cut, as disinflation in key categories gains traction.
- Fading shocks and a stronger CLP support disinflation; BCCh signals rates are moving towards neutral.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen below 5%, but sticky services and fiscal noise keep BanRep cautious.
- Mexico’s private consumption showed resilience in early Q2, but high interest rates weigh heavily.
- Capex continues to fall sharply amid trade-policy uncertainty and low business confidence.
- External demand remains the main support for growth, as domestic momentum weakens further.
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
- Brazilian Real — Rebound tests fiscal resolve
- Mexican Peso — Rally faces growing headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Currency strength facing fiscal test
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
