Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)

23 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Resilient economic headlines in Mexico, but shaky core foundations

  • An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
  • Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
  • Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

22 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Instability, reform and shifting alliances 

  • Brazil — Political and fiscal risks escalating
  • Mexico — Stability tested by violence and reform
  • Colombia —  Mr. Petro’s reform agenda faces headwinds

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

21 May 2025 LatAm Monitor A strong start for Chile's economy, but growth momentum will ease

  • Chile’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, led by services and government spending, despite a drag from mining.
  • Its external accounts improved in Q1 at the headline level, despite portfolio outflows and income deficits.
  • The investment outlook is brighter, given less political risk, but structural issues and uncertainty loom large.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

  • Brazil’s economic activity surged in Q1, driven by agriculture and resilience in industry and services…
  • …Momentum is likely to wane as tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty take hold.
  • Colombia’s real GDP rose strongly in Q1, thanks to domestic demand, but structural risks persist.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

19 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth

  • Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
  • Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
  • Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico sticks to the script; Brazil's retailers perform strongly in Q1

  • Banxico delivered another unanimous 50bp cut, to 8.50%, and pointed to more easing ahead.
  • Brazil’s resilient consumption masks mounting pressures from inflation and weak services… 
  • …Tighter financial conditions are also a drag, but retail and labour data offer cautious optimism.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

15 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Rebounding on receding global trade risk

  • Brazil — Receding risk and foreign inflows
  • Mexico — Rebounding, but volatility set to continue 
  • Chile — Boosted by tariff truce and domestic tailwinds

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

14 May 2025 LatAm Monitor US-China tariff truce brings limited, though welcome, relief for LatAm

  • LatAm will see muted benefit from the tariff rollback, as global demand and prices remain under pressure.
  • The temporary truce reduces uncertainty but does not reverse regional capex and confidence headwinds.
  • Chile’s disinflation is gaining traction, offering room for further monetary policy normalisation in H2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation stable on the surface in LatAm, but pressures linger beneath

  • Brazil’s headline inflation is stable, but services and food prices signal still-sticky underlying pressures.
  • The COPOM will hold rates steady as inflation risks linger, amid strong demand and volatile food costs.
  • Colombia’s inflation accelerated in April, challenging BanRep’s easing plans and credibility.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation ticks higher in Mexico, but underlying pressures are contained

  • Headline and core inflation in Mexico rose in April, driven mainly by seasonal services price rises…
  • …But underlying trends are contained and demand remains subdued, allowing Banxico to cut this week.
  • Peru’s BCRP cut rates to 4.50% and signalled a shift towards neutral, as inflation is well anchored, for now.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause

  • The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
  • Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
  • We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Tariff pause brings relief to LatAm currencies

  • Brazilian Real —  Stability tested as external risks mount
  • Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
  • Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's BCCh holds rates amid global risks and domestic fragilities

  • BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
  • Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
  • Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 May 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep resumes easing with caution

  • Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
  • BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
  • Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating  fundamentals.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 May 2025 LatAm Monitor. A narrow escape from recession, but the picture is far from rosy

  • Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
  • US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
  • Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

30 April 2025 LatAm Monitor IMF suspends Colombia's FCL access, exposing fiscal woes

  • Colombia’s suspension from the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line marks a turning point in its economic trajectory.
  • The move is technically temporary, but it reflects deep fiscal vulnerabilities.
  • BanRep is likely to hold rates as the FCL suspension raises policy constraints and market pressures.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

29 April 2025 LatAm Monitor A temporary reprieve in Mexico amid persistent uncertainty

  • February’s IGAE rebound brought short-term relief but failed to alter Mexico’s waning growth trajectory.
  • External trade tensions and domestic political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on capex.
  • Government growth forecasts are disconnected from prevailing conditions, with recession risk high.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil challenge COPOM's roadmap

  • Inflation pressures in Brazil deepened in April, driven by food and healthcare, with risks tilted upwards.
  • The BCB will hike on May 7 as it battles sticky services inflation; will it move to the sidelines thereafter?
  • Fiscal fragility and currency volatility complicate the policy mix, threatening inflation and market stability.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's recession likely to be brief but sufficient to curb inflation

  • Mexico’s surprise inflation rebound in early April reflects temporary shocks…
  • …Primarily the lagged effect of MXN depreciation, rather than a fundamental shift in the inflation trend.
  • Retail sales point to a broader slowdown in domestic demand, despite a better-than-expected Q1.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

24 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Trade, fiscal and policy dynamics shaping the near-term outlook

  • Brazil — Uncertainty and fiscal risks resurfacing
  • Mexico — Reforms and trade noise persist
  • Colombia —  Reform gamble deepens risks

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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