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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist) Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

25 September 2024 LatAm Monitor September inflation data support further rate cuts in Mexico

  • Mexico’s inflation decline paves the way for Banxico to cut rates at tomorrow’s meeting.
  • Weak economic growth is pressuring policymakers to ease further, but political noise will remain a risk.
  • Brazil’s COPOM minutes signal caution, suggesting limited rate hikes amid slowing growth.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

24 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Solid start to Q3 in Mexico, but persistent challenges ahead

  • Mexico’s economy has started H2 on a solid footing, as temporary shocks fade and inflation falls…
  • …But manufacturing remains under pressure and formal employment growth is slowing.
  • Banxico’s upcoming rate decision has to balance inflation control and policy uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's economy starts Q3 solidly, but policy shifts are a threat

  • Colombia’s economy faces headwinds despite the modest recovery; policy shifts muddy the outlook.
  • President Petro’s reform agenda meets political resistance, again; economic stability is at risk.
  • BanRep is dealing with inflation and growth worries amid government pressure for a dovish policy shift.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, September, 2024

  • In one line: In one line: A pre-emptive 25bp hike in response to persistent inflation risks.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's BCB hikes Selic rate, with a hawkish tone, for now

  • Brazil’s COPOM raised the Selic rate to 10.75% amid rising inflation risks and economic resilience.
  • The market expects further rate hikes, but we see rates on hold as economic activity is faltering.
  • Argentina’s GDP continued to fall in Q2 due to Mr. Milei’s reform efforts to put the economy on track.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

19 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Fiscal strain and rising policy uncertainty

  • Brazil — Fiscal and policy challenges
  • Mexico — Judicial reforms heighten political risk
  • Colombia —  Political turmoil clouds the economic outlook

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

18 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Argentina's inflation battle far from over, amid policy challenges

  • Argentina’s inflation battle is far from over, despite some visible improvements.
  • The government’s economic strategy will need to evolve to ensure lasting disinflation.
  • The 2025 budget targets ambitious inflation goals amid economic uncertainty and market disparities.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

17 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Peru's BCRP continues its cautious easing; we expect more cuts in Q4

  • The BCRP cut rates to 5.25%, maintaining a cautious approach amid inflation stabilisation and global risks.
  • Real interest rates remain restrictive, despite easing, as inflation expectations align with the target.
  • The narrowing rate differential with the Fed poses currency risk, but pressures are likely temporary.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 September 2024 LatAm Monitor COPOM faces tough rate decision amid inflation pressures

  • The COPOM has a tough rate decision amid rising inflation expectations, and elevated policy risk.
  • Mixed economic data highlight resilient services growth, but the industrial recovery remains fragile.
  • New BCB leadership under Gabriel Galípolo brings uncertainty to future policy and inflation-targeting.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, July, 2024

  • In one line: A decent performance in early Q3, but tight financial conditions remain a threat.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico's industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges

  • Mexico’s manufacturing struggles continue, as global demand and the outlook weaken.
  • Political risk and judicial reforms spark market fears, threatening the industrial and capex recovery.
  • Nearshoring benefits are delayed, and tight financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on manufacturing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance amid global uncertainty and upcoming Fed cuts

  • Mexico — Headwinds amid reform uncertainty
  • Colombia — Signs of recovery despite many headwinds
  • Peru —  Resilient despite global noise

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Brazil, August, 2024

  • In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation eases in August, but fiscal uncertainty remains a threat

  • Brazil’s inflation remains contained, but fiscal uncertainty and BRL depreciation are worrying.
  • Food and energy prices provide temporary relief amid rising inflation expectations and policy noise.
  • Colombia’s inflation has fallen sharply, strengthening the case for accelerated rate cuts from BanRep.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Colombia, August, 2024

  • In one line: Finally falling at the headline level, but politics now a key risk.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Inflation moderates in Mexico, but political uncertainty looms large

  • Headline inflation in Mexico moderated in August, but political risk and the MXN raise concerns.
  • AMLO’s populist plans threaten to overshadow the improving inflation outlook via an MXN sell-off.
  • The labour market is weakening, as formal job growth slows and informal employment dominates.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial output weakens, reducing likelihood of rate hikes

  • Brazil’s industrial production declined in July following a solid H1, and the outlook is now cautious.
  • A weaker trade surplus and rising import demand point to mounting external pressures.
  • Chile’s inflation rose in August; food and housing prices led the increase, due to temporary shocks. 
     

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 September 2024 LatAm Monitor BCCh cuts rates and projects a faster path to neutral by mid-2025

  • The BCCh resumed its easing, reflecting weaker growth and stable inflation expectations.
  • The Bank signalled a faster path to neutral, in Q2 2025, acknowledging weaker domestic demand.
  • We expect further rate cuts, to 5% by late Q4 and 4% by Q2 2025, but uncertainty is elevated.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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