Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist) Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

PM Datanote: BanRep Rate Decision, Colombia, October, 2024

  • In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts amid declining inflation and challenging global economic outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

October 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

MIXED RECOVERY FOR LATAM ECONOMIES

  • …AMID TEMPORARY INFLATION PRESSURES AND EXTERNAL THREATS

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 November 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico's economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election

  • Mexico saw strong growth in Q3, driven by agriculture and services, yet challenges lie ahead.
  • Political uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election poses a risk to Mexico’s economy.
  • Key sectors are showing resilience, but external factors could hit future growth and capex decisions.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q3, 2024

  • In one line: Resilient, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

30 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Will Argentina's nascent recovery and disinflation continue?

  • Argentina’s economic developments show inflation control and a fiscal surplus amid social challenges.
  • But rising poverty and unemployment illustrate the impact of the tough austerity measures.
  • The outlook relies on balancing growth, political risk and sustainable economic policies.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

29 October 2024 LatAm Monitor October inflation opens door to further Banxico rate cuts

  • Non-core inflation surged in October, highlighting temporary drivers are impacting Mexico’s CPI.
  • Stable core inflation amid weak demand suggests a dovish approach to Banxico’s future rate cuts.
  • MXN sell-off risks and global trade uncertainty challenge inflation management strategies ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Bad start to Q3 for inflation in Brazil and Mexico, but it should improve

  • Bad weather and energy prices are driving inflation in Brazil and Mexico, challenging policymakers.
  • Weather-related shocks in Brazil are notably contributing to its economic deterioration.
  • COPOM will address these challenges, but further tightening may not improve the inflation outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico's economy faces subpar growth amid risks and uncertainty

  • The IGAE reveals the Mexican economy is slowing, with volatility in agricultural and industrial sectors.
  • Consumer confidence is declining as households worry about prospects and job-market weakness.
  • The manufacturing sector contracted further, driven by demand retrenchment and external pressures.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Mexico Retail Sales, August, 2024

  • In one line: Weakening, due mainly to tighter financial conditions and elevated uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexican retailers facing pressure despite solid remittances from US

  • The retail sales decline in Mexico signals economic strain, prompting urgent need for interest rate cuts.
  • Rising remittances provide temporary relief, yet worries are growing amid political uncertainty.
  • Key sectors are struggling as consumer sentiment deteriorates, highlighting challenges for the recovery.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Mexico, August, 2024

  • In one line: Under pressure, as agriculture and industrial production weaken.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

22 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's economy improved in Q3, but challenges lie ahead

  • Colombia’s economic recovery continues, but sector disparities highlight underlying vulnerabilities.
  • Retail sales offset weak manufacturing output; inflation and political uncertainty pose risks.
  • BanRep likely will cut rates further at upcoming meetings but has no need to accelerate the pace.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

21 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Gradual rate cuts in Chile to continue; neutral rate in sight

  • Chile’s central bank cut by a steady 25bp, despite choppy external conditions.
  • Subdued inflation pressures and sluggish economic activity point to further easing, to neutral…
  • …But volatile external trends, potentially hitting the CLP and fiscal accounts, are a key threat.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

18 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil faces slowdown amid inflation, drought and capex challenges

  • Economic activity is slowing as financial conditions tighten and agricultural output was hit by drought.
  • Peru’s economic recovery is gaining momentum, driven by a strong labour market and mining output.
  • Chile’s BCCh will cut rates but likely adopt a cautious approach, as geopolitical noise is mounting.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

17 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Fiscal noise, policy uncertainty and US election

  • Brazil — Fiscal reset amid policy shifts
  • Mexico — Sheinbaum’s pragmatic economic shift?
  • Colombia —  Increased political noise hurting the economy

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Peru's BCRP maintains rates, with inflation likely to rebound in Q4

  • BCRP held interest rates steady, despite the recent improvement in inflation and economic uncertainty.
  • Global geopolitical noise and unfavourable base effects have pushed policymakers to the sidelines.
  • Mexico's industry is struggling amid construction issues and weak manufacturing demand.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, September, 2024

  • In one line: On hold, as inflation likely to increase marginally in Q4 due to base effects.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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