- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: BCRP resumes easing, citing stable inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: COPOM slows pace; signals prolonged hold on rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
- Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
- We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, but downside risks prevail.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Stability tested as external risks mount
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
- Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
- Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
- Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
- BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
- Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating fundamentals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM SHIELDS ITSELF AMID TARIFF TURMOIL…
- …BUT VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS REMAIN ELEVATED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
- US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
- Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Consumption resilient amid headwinds, but confidence wavers as external risks build.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s suspension from the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line marks a turning point in its economic trajectory.
- The move is technically temporary, but it reflects deep fiscal vulnerabilities.
- BanRep is likely to hold rates as the FCL suspension raises policy constraints and market pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- February’s IGAE rebound brought short-term relief but failed to alter Mexico’s waning growth trajectory.
- External trade tensions and domestic political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on capex.
- Government growth forecasts are disconnected from prevailing conditions, with recession risk high.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation pressures in Brazil deepened in April, driven by food and healthcare, with risks tilted upwards.
- The BCB will hike on May 7 as it battles sticky services inflation; will it move to the sidelines thereafter?
- Fiscal fragility and currency volatility complicate the policy mix, threatening inflation and market stability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
