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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)

7 August 2025 LatAm Monitor External headwinds and weak growth weigh on LatAm currencies

  • Brazilian Real —  Under strain as trade risk rises
  • Mexican Peso —  Holding firm amid headwinds
  • Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's recovery holds despite mining slump and fiscal challenges ahead

  • Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
  • The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
  • Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's BanRep on hold amid fiscal and external uncertainties

  • Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
  • Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
  • We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, June, 2025

  • In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Tariff reprieve to lift Mexico's GDP, but recovery remains delicate

  • Mexico’s industrial and service sectors rebounded in Q2, offsetting weak agriculture.
  • The US tariff extension brings near-term relief, supporting manufacturing, exports and capex.
  • Domestic policy volatility, weak sentiment and a real wage slowdown still weigh on broader momentum.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

July 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS UNEVEN AMID POLICY AND RISK…

  • …DISINFLATION IS PROGRESSING, BUT GROWTH REMAINS FRAGILE

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, June, 2025

  • In one line: Labour market still strong, but momentum set to fade.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil holds rates steady as tariffs cloud growth and inflation outlook

  • The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
  • …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
  • BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

30 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's BCB set to hold; Mexico's trade surplus masks weakness

  • Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
  • Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
  • …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

29 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Argentina's activity still resilient, but structural risks linger

  • Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
  • Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
  • Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation plateaus as demand softens and disinflation forces build

  • Headline inflation is stabilising in Brazil, but services remain sticky amid wage pressures.
  • A stronger BRL and falling input prices are helping, but tariff noise and politics cloud the outlook.
  • PMIs signal weakening activity; firms are cutting back on hiring and capex as confidence deteriorates.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, July, 2025

  • In one line: Core inflation softens, allowing further monetary policy normalisation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation slows again, but services still an issue, for now

  • Disinflation has resumed in Mexico, driven by softer food and energy prices; services are still a challenge.
  • Favourable base effects, a stronger MXN and subdued demand continue to support disinflation.
  • July data support a 25bp Banxico rate cut, as structural pressure limits the magnitude of easing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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Latin America Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,