Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS UNEVEN AMID POLICY AND RISK…
- …DISINFLATION IS PROGRESSING, BUT GROWTH REMAINS FRAGILE
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Labour market still strong, but momentum set to fade.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Retail strength holds; mining hit by temporary setback.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
- …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
- BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation stabilises as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation is stabilising in Brazil, but services remain sticky amid wage pressures.
- A stronger BRL and falling input prices are helping, but tariff noise and politics cloud the outlook.
- PMIs signal weakening activity; firms are cutting back on hiring and capex as confidence deteriorates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core inflation softens, allowing further monetary policy normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation has resumed in Mexico, driven by softer food and energy prices; services are still a challenge.
- Favourable base effects, a stronger MXN and subdued demand continue to support disinflation.
- July data support a 25bp Banxico rate cut, as structural pressure limits the magnitude of easing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s IGAE data show resilience, yet fading services and capex signal weak momentum into H2.
- Labour-market softness is deepening, with job creation stalling and real wage growth slowing further.
- Banxico is facing pressure to ease, but sticky core services inflation will constrain the pace of cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
- The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
- Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Most regional currencies have rallied on still-attractive carry and resilient terms-of-trade.
- Trade tensions with the US are reigniting inflation worries and complicating monetary policy decisions.
- Central banks face narrowing scope for cuts, as political risk and global uncertainty intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail and industrial data in Colombia point to a broad-based recovery, despite political volatility.
- A stronger COP, easing inflation and resilient job market are fuelling durable goods consumption.
- Mr. Petro’s proposals, tax reform and external risks still cloud the investment outlook heading into 2026.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
- Mexico — Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
- Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation is accelerating in Argentina, with headline and core prices reaching multi-year lows in June.
- Tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to anchor expectations, despite the ARS and political noise.
- BCRP held at 4.5%, signalling caution amid global uncertainty and anchored inflation expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s weakness in industry and services highlights the growing drag from tighter financial conditions.
- Mr. Trump’s tariff move threatens exports, investment and already-fragile economic momentum.
- Mexico has also been hit by the tariff noise, but markets are still betting on a negotiated outcome.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
