21 Dec 2022 Global Monitor Longer-for-Tighter ECB Policy will hit EZ GDP Growth

• U.S. - No Blink Yet from the FOMC, but their Inflation Forecasts are too High
• EUROZONE - The ECB Is Unhappy with Inflation; Rates Set to Hit 3.5% by June
• U.K. - November’s Fall in CPI Inflation Marks the Start of a Sharp Decline
• CHINA+ - The Darkest Hour for China’s Economy is Before the Dawn
• EM ASIA - Indian Industry is Slipping, Diwali Distortions Aside
• LATAM - Banxico Slows the Pace; will it End the Tightening in February?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, October, 2022

• In one line: A bold hike, but with one dissenter; we expect a smaller hike next month.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global

26Oct 2022 Global Monitor

U.S. - The Proportionality Rule Suggests a Serious 2023 Recession is Unlikely

EUROZONE - We Look for 75bp from the ECB this Week, as does Everyone Else 

U.K. - Expect Painful Public Spending Cuts to be Announced Next Week 

CHINA+ - China’s Reopening Rebound is More Flawed than it First Appears

EM ASIA - A Rupiah-Defensive Hike by BI, but the Currency Needs Minimal Help

LATAM - Inflation in Mexico is now Heading South, but Banxico won’t Back Down

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, 2022

• In one line: A bold hike, in tandem with the Fed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global