- In one line: The H2 rise in food inflation is finally over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Entering 2024 with negative momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The worst of the recent food price surge is over; Diwali calendar effects flatter October IP massively.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The FOMC will Push Back Against Talk of Near-Term Easing
- EUROZONE- The ECB Will Lower its Inflation Forecasts This Week, but How Far?
- U.K. - MPC Unlikely to Endorse the Decline in Rate Expectations Just Yet
- CHINA+ - Japan’s Downward GDP Revision Reflects Weak Private Consumption
- EM ASIA - Pushing Our Call for the First RBI Rate Cut to April
- LATAM - Brazil’s GDP Growth Is Weakening, and the Near-Term Outlook Is Dim
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Still not showing any appetite for normalisation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Chair Powell’s Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they’re Done
- EUROZONE- The ECB’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates is About to Change
- U.K. - BRC and Eurozone Data Suggest CPI Inflation Fell Again in November
- CHINA+ - Chinese Manufacturing Reports Weakening Demand
- EM ASIA - Make What You Will of India’s Absurd Q3 GDP... We’re Not Moved
- LATAM - An Inflection Point, Though Anaemic, for the Chilean Economy
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Adverse food price base effects will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Only a small respite in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Business Investment Spending Stalled at the Start of Q4
- EUROZONE - Germany’s Economy Is Suffering; a Fiscal Crisis Would Make It Worse
- U.K. - Autumn Statement Tax Cuts Won’t Stop the MPC Cutting Rates Next
- CHINA+ - China’s Economic Rebalancing Strategy Informs Market Direction
- EM ASIA - Fiscal Consolidation in Malaysia’s 2024 Budget Likely Too Optimistic
- LATAM - Will a Stronger-Than-Expected Economy in Q3 Scare Off Banxico?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Probably already regretting the October hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place
- EUROZONE- The EZ inflation data remain consistent with a March cut,to us
- U.K. - CPI Inflation Falling Quickly Enough for the MPC to Start Easing in Q2
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Developers Continue to Flounder
- EM ASIA - Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster
- LATAM - Milei’s Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid start to Q4 for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - How a Soft Landing Base Case Becomes a Full-Blown Recession
- EUROZONE- Italy Facing a Tough Year-End Whether in Recession or Not
- U.K. - Households Will Put GDP Back on its Rising Path in Q4
- CHINA+ - Slowing Capital Outflows Ease Pressure on China’s Foreign Reserves
- EM ASIA - Watch Out for a Big Payback in India’s Q3 GDP Report
- LATAM - Banxico Finally Blinks, Opening the Door to Rate Cuts Pretty Soon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
