- In one line: A cautious cut, but bolder action likely will come soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as widely expected.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- U.S. - Inflation is tamed, and that matters more to the Fed than strong growth
- EUROZONE- GDP data support a dovish shift from the ECB; Spanish CPI not so much
- U.K.- MPC likely to split the difference with the market
- CHINA+ - China’s RRR cut is about accommodating fiscal stimulus
- EM ASIA - Reassuring early Q1 PMIs in India
- LATAM - A busy but relatively straightforward week for LatAm central banks
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Poor economic activity and soft core inflation pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Banking on the recovery in the electrical and electronics sector.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Fed wants to ease slowly, but their forecasts are too cautious
- EUROZONE- ECB to push back against market expectations this week
- U.K.- Consumer price rises still fading quickly enough for a May rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s property sector still looking for the light at the end of the tunnel
- EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP to pick up in 2024 on manufacturing sector rebound
- LATAM - Brazil’s retail sector resilient in Q4, thanks to Black Friday
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Struggling, despite relatively positive sectoral data in November.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Old news; will January and February inflation be soft enough for a March cut?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: No cuts until inflation is comfortably below target; that is, in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE prices likely rose at the 2% target pace in Q4, matching Q3
- EUROZONE- Eurozone GDP likely fell in Q4, despite a leap in net exports
- U.K.- Will the MPC cut Bank Rate by more than 25bp at one meeting?
- CHINA+ - China’s credit demand softens, as developers repay debt
- EM ASIA - Only a matter of when, not if, Indian food inflation becomes a huge drag
- LATAM - A Busy Week for LatAm Inflation Watchers; All Good, for Now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Exports are improving, but demand still isn’t firing on all fronts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The CPI report has yet to pick-up the correction in onion prices; don’t panic over the Diwali-related crash in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global