Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Global Publications

Below is a list of our Global Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

23 April 2025 Global Monitor Near-real-time data still mostly strong in the US

  • US - Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker
  • EUROZONE - A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB
  • UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
  • CHINA+ - China’s strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures
  • EM ASIA service is on holiday this week; returning next week
  • LATAM - Mexico’s industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks

16 April 2025 Global Monitor The ECB is first up after the tariff shock; it will cut rates this week

  • US - Stagnation still lies ahead, as the trade war narrows, but deepens
  • EUROZONE - The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance
  • UK - Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth
  • CHINA+ - Beyond tit-for-tat tariffs: what Xi’s China is really fighting for
  • EM ASIA - ‘Factory Asia’—ex-China—won’t break, even if April 9 tariffs return
  • LATAM - Brazil battles inflation as activity surprises and fiscal risks linger

9 April 2025 Global Monitor US GDP growth will stagnate as trade uncertainty bites

  • US - Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff madness
  • EUROZONE - We think the EZ economy is now entering a technical recession
  • UK - GDP likely unchanged in February as manufacturing drags on growth
  • CHINA+ - China’s brinkmanship with the US likely aimed at forcing start of talks
  • EM ASIA - GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of ‘Liberation Day’
  • LATAM - LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures

2 April 2025 Global Monitor BoJ to stand pat in May, even after food inflation spices things up in April

  • US - Liberation Day to reduce uncertainty, but at what inflation cost?
  • EUROZONE - Data signal an ECB pause in April, ‘Liberation Day’ permitting
  • UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
  • CHINA+ - The BoJ to focus on tariff impact, as food inflation builds again
  • EM ASIA - Unsurprisingly, Taiwan’s central bank continues to hold rates
  • LATAM - Tough days for Banxico demand bold monetary policy action
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