- US - Stagnation still lies ahead, as the trade war narrows, but deepens
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance
- UK - Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth
- CHINA+ - Beyond tit-for-tat tariffs: what Xi’s China is really fighting for
- EM ASIA - ‘Factory Asia’—ex-China—won’t break, even if April 9 tariffs return
- LATAM - Brazil battles inflation as activity surprises and fiscal risks linger
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff madness
- EUROZONE - We think the EZ economy is now entering a technical recession
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in February as manufacturing drags on growth
- CHINA+ - China’s brinkmanship with the US likely aimed at forcing start of talks
- EM ASIA - GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of ‘Liberation Day’
- LATAM - LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Liberation Day to reduce uncertainty, but at what inflation cost?
- EUROZONE - Data signal an ECB pause in April, ‘Liberation Day’ permitting
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - The BoJ to focus on tariff impact, as food inflation builds again
- EM ASIA - Unsurprisingly, Taiwan’s central bank continues to hold rates
- LATAM - Tough days for Banxico demand bold monetary policy action
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The FOMC’s fears of rising unemployment will be borne out
- EUROZONE - This is the end of the road for the SNB’s easing cycle
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands pat in March on external trade policy considerations
- EM ASIA - JCI sell-off putting more pressure on BI to cut sooner rather than later
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM tightens policy again but will slow the pace in May
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Consumers’ confidence overstates the slowdown now underway
- EUROZONE - SNB has found the end of the rainbow: easing cycle finishes here
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - China looking in somewhat better shape ahead of tariff hikes
- EM ASIA - RBI facing a smoother road to an April cut; food CPI is going nowhere
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospect
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - February payroll growth was solid, but a slowdown looms this spring
- EUROZONE - A look on the bright side for GDP growth in the Eurozone
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - Premier Li announces step-up in fiscal support; still room for more
- EM ASIA - Ignore Vietnam’s first trade deficit in years; US tariff front-running is here
- LATAM - Trade, inflation and economic activity risks under Trump 2.0
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - What do new tariffs mean for consumer prices?
- EUROZONE - ECB hawks have a strong case for arguing this week’s cut is the last
- UK - Retail sales recovering after their pre-Budget stumble
- CHINA+ - Two Sessions preview: staying the course, readying stimulus ammo
- EM ASIA - India’s Q4 GDP bounce confirmed, on consumption and exports
- LATAM - Argentina’s economy rebounding under Mr. Milei’s leadership
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Nasty; is the ECB done this week?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - How seriously should we take the PMI’s slowdown signal?
- EUROZONE - The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right
- UK - Increased NICs will be manageable for firms and consumers
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - Not long until BI eases again, especially given Prabowo’s cuts
- LATAM - Mexico’s economic outlook worsens amid external and domestic risks
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: A local high, but still no perfect landing at 2%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Ugly crash in the services PMI is a fluke, we hope
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Core PCE inflation fell in January; further progress to come
- EUROZONE - A truce in Ukraine is no panacea for still-elevated EZ energy prices
- UK - UK growth on the path to some recovery in Q1
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - BSP’s surprise pause won’t last long; real rates still way too high
- LATAM - Temporary disinflation in Brazil; Mexico’s industrial sector woes
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium
- UK - Focus on hawkish forecasts rather than two votes for a 50bp cut
- CHINA+ - China’s holiday spending is robust, but it won’t last
- EM ASIA - Malhotra’s RBI debut was both no shock and unexpectedly reassuring
- LATAM - Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - A growth slowdown looms, as the saving rate rebounds
- EUROZONE - The ECB can’t dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer
- UK - MPC preview: 25bp cut, guiding to three-to-four reductions in 2025
- CHINA+ - DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors
- EM ASIA - New headwinds amid green shoots; PH won’t do much better in 2025
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Hot, but all eyes on tariffs this morning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global