- US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
- EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
- UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
- CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
- EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
- LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock
- EUROZONE - SNB shies away from negative rates for now; EZ PMI holds steady
- UK - Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely
- CHINA+ - Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes
- EM ASIA - BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts
- LATAM - COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Expect payback for May’s below-trend rise in the CPI over the summer
- EUROZONE - Jumbo cut from SNB incoming; EURUSD rally should peter out
- UK - MPC preview: on hold, but more open to a cut in August
- CHINA+ -China’s productivity opportunity can cushion demographic pressure
- EM ASIA - Malaysian retail sales remain weak, but high debt is no major worry
- LATAM - Mexico’s inflation rises again in May; Banxico to ease cautiously
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Mr. Trump is right; the labor market will need substantial Fed easing soon
- EUROZONE - Irish distortions return; we revise down our Q2 EZ GDP forecast
- UK - CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC’s call
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
- EM ASIA - RBI’s surprise front-loading of cuts doesn’t mark the finish line
- LATAM - Uncertainty and caution behind Mexico’s faltering domestic demand
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Weaker consumers’ spending and higher core inflation lie ahead
- EUROZONE - Soft inflation data signal dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June
- UK - Forecast review: Stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
- EM ASIA - India’s investment-led Q1 leap is unreliable; consumers still in doubt
- LATAM - Solid start for Chile’s Q2 growth; subdued inflation pressures in Peru
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - Japan’s weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ’s decision to pause
- EM ASIA - US front-running boosts Thailand’s Q1, but it’s all downhill from here
- LATAM - Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Inflation outlook little changed by China deal, but exports will be firmer
- EUROZONE - The US-China trade deal is worth less than markets believe
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - China considering a major overhaul of its housing-market model
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ Q1 wasn’t that bad but may be as good as it gets for 2025
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Uncertainty over tariffs hasn’t killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt
- EUROZONE - Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July
- UK - MPC preview: all about the likely new downside scenario
- CHINA+ - US and China edge closer to trade talks after back-channel signals
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP gets a boost from “Liberation Day” tariff chaos
- LATAM - Mexico narrowly escapes recession, but the outlook is far from rosy
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payroll growth is unlikely to have slowed decisively as soon as April
- EUROZONE - PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ–US trade surplus jumps
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - Chinese policymakers keep heads down, focusing on domestic issues
- EM ASIA - Easter rewind: the start of tougher times for Indonesian exports
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil challenge COPOM’s roadmap
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Trade wars are not good for firm morale.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker
- EUROZONE - A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures
- EM ASIA service is on holiday this week; returning next week
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global