Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Global Publications

Below is a list of our Global Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

2 July 2025 Global Monitor Soft June payrolls incoming

  • US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
  • EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
  • UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
  • CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
  • EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
  • LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

25 June 2025 Global Monitor Japan's firms offsetting tariff hit to trade with price cuts

  • US - Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock
  • EUROZONE - SNB shies away from negative rates for now; EZ PMI holds steady
  • UK - Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely
  • CHINA+ - Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes
  • EM ASIA - BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts
  • LATAM - COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, June 2025

In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

18 June 2025 Global Monitor SNB to bring back negative policy rate

  • US - Expect payback for May’s below-trend rise in the CPI over the summer
  • EUROZONE - Jumbo cut from SNB incoming; EURUSD rally should peter out
  • UK - MPC preview: on hold, but more open to a cut in August
  • CHINA+ -China’s productivity opportunity can cushion demographic pressure
  • EM ASIA - Malaysian retail sales remain weak, but high debt is no major worry
  • LATAM - Mexico’s inflation rises again in May; Banxico to ease cautiously

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

11 June 2025 Global Monitor Sentiment in China resilient to trade war

  • US - Mr. Trump is right; the labor market will need substantial Fed easing soon
  • EUROZONE - Irish distortions return; we revise down our Q2 EZ GDP forecast
  • UK - CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC’s call
  • CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
  • EM ASIA - RBI’s surprise front-loading of cuts doesn’t mark the finish line
  • LATAM - Uncertainty and caution behind Mexico’s faltering domestic demand

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, Eurozone, May/April

In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

4 June 2025 Global Monitor Soft inflation sets up dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June

  • US - Weaker consumers’ spending and higher core inflation lie ahead
  • EUROZONE - Soft inflation data signal dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June
  • UK - Forecast review: Stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut
  • CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
  • EM ASIA - India’s investment-led Q1 leap is unreliable; consumers still in doubt
  • LATAM - Solid start for Chile’s Q2 growth; subdued inflation pressures in Peru

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

28 May 2025 Global Monitor US goes after the EU; will it last?

  • US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
  • UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
  • EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
  • CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
  • EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
  • LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

21 May 2025 Global Monitor Strong GDP growth won't prevent the SNB from cutting below zero

  • US - How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes?
  • EUROZONE - Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing
  • UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
  • CHINA+ - Japan’s weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ’s decision to pause
  • EM ASIA - US front-running boosts Thailand’s Q1, but it’s all downhill from here
  • LATAM - Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts? 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

14 May 2025 Global Monitor The tightening cycle is over in Brazil; when come the cuts?

  • US - Inflation outlook little changed by China deal, but exports will be firmer
  • EUROZONE - The US-China trade deal is worth less than markets believe
  • UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
  • CHINA+ - China considering a major overhaul of its housing-market model
  • EM ASIA - Philippines’ Q1 wasn’t that bad but may be as good as it gets for 2025
  • LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

7 May 2025 Global Monitor We now think the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 1.75% by July

  • US - Uncertainty over tariffs hasn’t killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt
  • EUROZONE - Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July
  • UK - MPC preview: all about the likely new downside scenario
  • CHINA+ - US and China edge closer to trade talks after back-channel signals
  • EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP gets a boost from “Liberation Day” tariff chaos
  • LATAM - Mexico narrowly escapes recession, but the outlook is far from rosy

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

30 April 2025 Global Monitor China is focused on domestic policy as US trade policy remains in flux

  • US - Payroll growth is unlikely to have slowed decisively as soon as April
  • EUROZONE - PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ–US trade surplus jumps
  • UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
  • CHINA+ - Chinese policymakers keep heads down, focusing on domestic issues
  • EM ASIA - Easter rewind: the start of tougher times for Indonesian exports
  • LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil challenge COPOM’s roadmap

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, April 2025

In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, April 2025

In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

23 April 2025 Global Monitor Near-real-time data still mostly strong in the US

  • US - Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker
  • EUROZONE - A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB
  • UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
  • CHINA+ - China’s strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures
  • EM ASIA service is on holiday this week; returning next week
  • LATAM - Mexico’s industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

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