In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Hit by political uncertainty, but no panic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast
- EUROZONE - Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing
- UK - MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut
- CHINA+ - BoJ commits to cutting JGB-buying, with details to be revealed in July
- EM ASIA - Indian inflation heading into H2: a shift from mundane to manic
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls
- EUROZONE - Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets
- UK - Labour market data help the chances of an August rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s exports turn the corner; on track for modest growth this year
- EM ASIA - An August RBI rate cut seems both so close and yet so far
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
- EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
- UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
- CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
- EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
- LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Indicators pointing to a worsening labor market still in the majority
- EUROZONE - German GDP growth will slow in Q2, but the recovery is durable
- UK - Services inflation surprise means MPC will wait until August to cut
- CHINA+ - BoK signals delay to rate cuts on rising inflation risks
- EM ASIA - Here comes the downshift in Indian GDP growth from 8%-plus
- LATAM - Banxico navigates sticky headline inflation amid slowing growth
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Decent; services activity is firm, even as inflation pressures ease.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - GDP growth is set to slow—but not collapse—squeezing down inflation
- EUROZONE - Sticky services inflation still the key threat to the outlook for rates
- UK - Sticking to June rate cut, as MPC words lately matter more than data
- CHINA+ - China’s activity data mixed, ahead of incoming support policies
- EM ASIA - Why you shouldn’t hang your hat on Thailand’s Q1 GDP surprise
- LATAM - Brazil’s activity index rebounds in Q1, but risks looming for H2
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Initial claims better at flagging labor market upturns than downturns
- EUROZONE - Rise in food inflation in April not the start of a new trend
- UK - June is live after MPC chops inflation forecasts
- CHINA+ - April data likely to show tentative improvement in China’s recovery
- EM ASIA - Weak consumers still point to a 2024 slowdown in the Philippines
- LATAM - Banxico keeps rates on hold and strikes a more hawkish tone
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - April’s payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend
- EUROZONE - Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April
- UK - MPC Preview: set to signal more cuts than the market expects
- CHINA+ - China’s broadening services recovery will go only so far
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP as good as it’ll likely get in 2024
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP slowing amid macro concerns and policy dilemma
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line : Grim, but the reality on the ground is likely better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The core is still drifting lower, but slowly does it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Does Chair Powell still see no signs of cracks in the labor market?
- EUROZONE - Higher GDP won’t impede first rate cut in June, as core inflation falls
- UK- Forecast Review: strong growth and stubborn services
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands fast, refusing to bow to currency-market pressure
- EM ASIA - A strong—but frankly foolish—policy response from BI
- LATAM - Mexico to hold rates amid inflation surprise and economic rebound
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Slowing incomes and a rising saving rate threaten consumption
- EUROZONE - A decade covering the EZ; what have we learnt, and what’s next?
- UK - Inflation surprise cannot be dismissed as Easter volaility
- CHINA+ - China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
- EM ASIA - Malaysian manufacturing growth will only pick up further from Q1
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy starts 2024 on a solid footing, but challenges loom
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Great, but can the services PMI be trusted?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
