11 June 2025 Global Monitor Sentiment in China resilient to trade war

• US - Mr. Trump is right; the labor market will need substantial Fed easing soon
• EUROZONE - Irish distortions return; we revise down our Q2 EZ GDP forecast
• UK - CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC’s call
• CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
• EM ASIA - RBI’s surprise front-loading of cuts doesn’t mark the finish line
• LATAM - Uncertainty and caution behind Mexico’s faltering domestic demand

Global Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.

Global Datanote: Exports, China, May

In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.

Global Datanote: Inflation, Chile, May, 2025

• In one line: Disinflation remains on track.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: Front-loading most of this year’s remaining cuts.

Global Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, May

In one line: China's manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in May due to US tariff reprieve

Global Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's core CPI surprise points to continued squeeze on real wages

Global Datanote: Bank of Korea Decision, Korea, May

In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, May

• In one line: A bounce of sorts, but manufacturing is still shaky.

Global Datanote: Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea's exports set back less severe than expected, as tariff reprieve offers breathing space

Global Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, May

 Plunge in Caixin manufacturing gauge won't trigger a knee-jerk policy response

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, Eurozone, May/April

In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer. 

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, May 2025

In one line: Below zero; brace for a 50bp cut from the SNB.

4 June 2025 Global Monitor Soft inflation sets up dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June

• US - Weaker consumers’ spending and higher core inflation lie ahead
• EUROZONE - Soft inflation data signal dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June
• UK - Forecast review: Stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut
• CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
• EM ASIA - India’s investment-led Q1 leap is unreliable; consumers still in doubt
• LATAM - Solid start for Chile’s Q2 growth; subdued inflation pressures in Peru

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, May

In one line: Manufacturing remains under pressure.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, April, 2025

• In one line: Recovery maintaining a solid pace, but external headwinds still loom.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, May

• In one line: Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April

• In one line: A partially welcome collapse in the surplus.

28 May 2025 Global Monitor US goes after the EU; will it last?

• US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
• UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
• EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
• CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
• EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
• LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead