- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - Japan’s weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ’s decision to pause
- EM ASIA - US front-running boosts Thailand’s Q1, but it’s all downhill from here
- LATAM - Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Q1 surge driven by agriculture; broader gains show resilience.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Banxico cuts again but strikes a cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Inflation outlook little changed by China deal, but exports will be firmer
- EUROZONE - The US-China trade deal is worth less than markets believe
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - China considering a major overhaul of its housing-market model
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ Q1 wasn’t that bad but may be as good as it gets for 2025
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: COPOM slows pace; signals prolonged hold on rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Uncertainty over tariffs hasn’t killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt
- EUROZONE - Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July
- UK - MPC preview: all about the likely new downside scenario
- CHINA+ - US and China edge closer to trade talks after back-channel signals
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP gets a boost from “Liberation Day” tariff chaos
- LATAM - Mexico narrowly escapes recession, but the outlook is far from rosy
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Inflation held steady, but declines are coming; we are adding a July ECB rate cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
