- In one line: Short-lived, policy-induced deflation is over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff madness
- EUROZONE - We think the EZ economy is now entering a technical recession
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in February as manufacturing drags on growth
- CHINA+ - China’s brinkmanship with the US likely aimed at forcing start of talks
- EM ASIA - GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of ‘Liberation Day’
- LATAM - LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsGlobal
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The nascent improvement is far from comprehensive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Liberation Day to reduce uncertainty, but at what inflation cost?
- EUROZONE - Data signal an ECB pause in April, ‘Liberation Day’ permitting
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - The BoJ to focus on tariff impact, as food inflation builds again
- EM ASIA - Unsurprisingly, Taiwan’s central bank continues to hold rates
- LATAM - Tough days for Banxico demand bold monetary policy action
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: On hold, as uncertainty lingers.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - The FOMC’s fears of rising unemployment will be borne out
- EUROZONE - This is the end of the road for the SNB’s easing cycle
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands pat in March on external trade policy considerations
- EM ASIA - JCI sell-off putting more pressure on BI to cut sooner rather than later
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM tightens policy again but will slow the pace in May
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Weak economic activity curbing inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Up thanks to rebound in German manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Up less than expected but still consistent with a rebound in GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Rebounding but still pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The end of the road for the SNB’s current easing cycle?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Consumers’ confidence overstates the slowdown now underway
- EUROZONE - SNB has found the end of the rainbow: easing cycle finishes here
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - China looking in somewhat better shape ahead of tariff hikes
- EM ASIA - RBI facing a smoother road to an April cut; food CPI is going nowhere
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospect
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
