Global Publications
Below is a list of our Global Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- US - Payrolls will slow in February, as the weather lift fades
- EUROZONE - Negative SNB rates unlikely even if inflation hits sub-zero in February
- UK - CPI preview 2: Shave our January forecast to 3.0%
- CHINA+ - China starting to recognise the need for a fresh property policy
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s export growth reaches the highest print since the 1970s
- LATAM - Our LatAm team is on annual leave. Publication will resume on February 25.
- US - January CPI likely to undershoot the consensus
- EUROZONE - ECB sets out the—unlikely, in our view—conditions for a rate cut
- UK - CPI weight changes fractionally raise our inflation forecast
- CHINA+ - PM Takaichi’s election gamble paid off, but market jitters continue
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s ‘hot’ Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one
- LATAM - Banxico pauses and eyes easing in Q2; Chile inflation stays in check
- US - Rates unlikely to track a much lower path with Warsh at the Fed
- EUROZONE - No change from the ECB this week amid mixed data
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in December but activity will pick up in Q1
- CHINA+ - How Beijing is using diplomacy to expose cracks in Western alliances
- EM ASIA - Taiwan Q4 GDP hits a 21st-century high; our call was spot on
- LATAM - Brazil signals March easing; Chile holds but cuts likely ahead
- US - Labor market risks mean the FOMC will hint at further easing to come
- EUROZONE - Resilience in EZ PMIs, but growth expectations are now higher too
- UK - Payrolls look implausibly weak, vacancies are stable
- CHINA+ - BoJ resists market pressure to hike rates, ahead of snap election
- EM ASIA - Expect a quiet year for BI rate action; independence worries overblown
- LATAM - Mexico’s headline inflation under control, but core still sticky
- US - Have foreign businesses eaten the increase in US tariffs?
- EUROZONE - Greenland now the epicentre of a frayed EU-US relationship
- UK - GDP growth in Q4 will beat the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - PBoC focusing on targeted support to further strategic goals
- EM ASIA - Malaysian Q4 GDP surprises to the upside, thanks again to the AI boom
- LATAM - Mexico’s consumption leads and capex lags; Brazil’s activity stabilising
- US - December CPI suggests tariff pass-through is slowing
- EUROZONE - With friends like this…; how can the EU react as Trump eyes Greenland?
- UK - GDP likely rose in November despite pre-Budget uncertainty
- CHINA+ - China’s inflation firms in December, but sustained reflation still tricky
- EM ASIA - Reasons to believe Vietnam’s Q4 GDP growth shock is the peak
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation hits target range; Mexico’s industry finds its footing
- US - December labor market data to maintain pressure on FOMC to ease
- EUROZONE - ECB doves get a late Christmas gift in Germany’s December HICP
- UK - Forecast review: five questions for the New Year
- CHINA+ - China’s services firms optimistic despite cooling in demand
- EM ASIA - Singapore GDP ends 2025 on a high, but we expect this to fade
- LATAM - Security, geopolitics and elections redefine LatAm’s political outlook
- US - Lackluster payrolls, but not alarming enough for a January easing
- EUROZONE - ECB preview: EZ policy rates to stay on hold all the way until 2027
- UK - CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%
- CHINA+ - China’s domestic demand still in the slow lane as policy boost fades
- EM ASIA - “End” to BSP’s easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%
- LATAM - Kast’s mandate signals Chile’s return to discipline, and market confidence
- US - Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches.
- EUROZONE - SNB to stand pat despite fall in inflation.
- UK - PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos.
- CHINA+ - China's Politburo focus on domestic demand and structural issues.
- EM ASIA - RBI resumes its easing cycle, but this cut will likely be its last.
- LATAM - Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite.
- US - Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone’s projections?
- EUROZONE - Swiss and Italian GDP recovering; their fortunes will diverge in 2026
- UK - Delayed fiscal tightening gives the MPC little reason to cut rates more
- CHINA+ - China’s consumption promotion plan flatters to deceive
- EM ASIA - Egg on our faces for India’s Q3, but the detail is with us
- LATAM - Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January
- US - Rising unemployment keeps a December FOMC easing in play
- EUROZONE - Inflation still on track to keep the ECB on hold in December
- UK - Week in review: hello December MPC rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market still has a way to go until recovery
- EM ASIA - India’s record trade deficit in October mainly an import story
- LATAM - Mexico’s recovery stalls as technical recession looms in H2
- US - How much is AI contributing to the labor market slowdown?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy shrinks more than expected in Q3; Q4 will be better
- UK - GDP headline means a rate cut, but the underlying picture is better
- CHINA+ - China’s logistics ambitions: from SF Express to the Northeast Passage
- EM ASIA - Inventories make Thailand’s Q3 GDP look worse than it actually was
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile’s first round fragmented
- US - Tariffs unlikely to drive a big “re-shoring” of US manufacturing
- EUROZONE - Swiss GDP fell in Q3 and the economy is now likely in recession
- UK - Only 15 sleeps to go until the Budget, but firms brush off worries
- CHINA+ - China’s export growth more resilient than the headline figures suggest
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ ugly Q3 GDP long in the making; ICI will make things worse
- LATAM - Banxico cautious as core inflation stickiness curbs easing prospects
- US - Indicators of consumers’ spending are starting to flash amber
- EUROZONE - The ECB keeps rates steady as inflation and GDP look resilient
- UK - MPC preview: holding Bank Rate steady but signalling cuts
- CHINA+ - Xi-Trump meet-up: temporary trade truce tilted in China’s favour
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP growth still strong, but we think it’s finally peaked
- LATAM - BCCh holds rates as political noise grows; Mexico’s GDP falls in Q3
- US - Falling core services inflation to allow extended FOMC easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Not much for the ECB to talk about tomorrow; all eyes on December
- UK - Week in review: December rate-cut call, but reasons for caution still
- CHINA+ - US-China agree broad framework for trade ahead of Xi-Trump meet-up
- EM ASIA - A surprise hold, but BI isn’t done; we still see a cut to 4.50% by year-end
- LATAM - Policy shift nears in Brazil as disinflation deepens; Milei’s win
- US - September CPI to rise sharply, but by less than markets are pricing in
- EUROZONE - EZ GDP likely grew by 0.1% over the quarter in Q3, as in Q2
- UK - Another big Budget to add ‘belt and braces’ to fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - What else do we expect in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan?
- EM ASIA -Malaysia’s Q3 GDP surprisingly rises, thanks to extractives
- LATAM - Slight momentum in Brazil’s economy, but the outlook is fragile
- US - What’s at stake if the AI boom turns to bust?
- EUROZONE - We’re lifting our Q3 GDP growth forecast for France
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in August as industrial output drags on growth
- CHINA+ - Renewed US-China trade tensions highlight fragility of their relations
- EM ASIA - A rude, if long overdue, awakening for the BSP’s talk of a “sweet spot”
- LATAM - BraMex inflation: diverging paths, same cautious central banks
- US - Most alternative indicators of payrolls are garbage
- EUROZONE - Swiss inflation is low and set to fall, but the SNB will ignore it
- UK - H1 growth well-balanced, if we smooth through front-running
- CHINA+ -Japan’s likely new prime minister could lead the BoJ to delay rate rise
- EM ASIA - Still a matter of when, not if, the RBI will cut again; we look for December
- LATAM - BanRep holds rates as inflation persists, fiscal weakness deepens
- US - September payrolls likely rose only modestly, despite favorable seasonals
- EUROZONE - SNB stands pat; we now think the easing cycle is over
- UK - Consumers’ confidence staying resilient despite the headwinds
- CHINA+ - Japan’s manufacturing sector yet to see tariff relief, despite US deal
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s finance minister sets himself up for failure with budget
- LATAM - Banxico eases amid fragile growth, inflation, and trade uncertainty
- US - FOMC likely to ease a further 50bp this year, but expect close votes
- EUROZONE - We’re lifting our EURUSD forecast, but not enough for a rate cut
- UK - Week in review: Sticky inflation and questionable slack
- CHINA+ - Xi-Trump call: Trust rebuilding, finer TikTok details still being ironed out
- EM ASIA - Three consecutive surprises from BI and we expect another in October
- LATAM - Copom holds Selic but normalisation path emerging; Argentina in trouble
