14 Jan 2022 Draghi's Departure Wouldn't Change Italy's Outlook, Much

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)14th Jan 2022 00:10Eurozone, Daily Monitor

Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.

bank bank lending btp car sales coalition confidence consumers demand draghi economic outlook economy election energy eu euro euro area exports fiscal policy forecast forecasts france funds gdp gdp growth global goods growth imports index industrial production input costs investment it italy jobless rate labour loans mortgage outlook output policy polls president prime minister production remain retail retail sales sales services services output spending supply taxes trade trade surplus us

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