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  • The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months. 
  • The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening. 
  • Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes. 

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Keywords for: 9 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence