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  • War in Iran will add 0.1-to-0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June, at current oil and gas prices. 
  • Inflation in liquid fuels will jump immediately, but gas and electricity prices will rise more slowly. 
  • The ECB will view rising energy prices due to geopolitics as a negative supply shock. 

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Keywords for: 3 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence