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25th Nov 2025 11:06EurozoneDaily Monitor
  • The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call. 
  • We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. 
  • A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.

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Keywords for: 27 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence